白糖劲升、豆粕下挫

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends, with white sugar rising strongly and soybean meal declining. Other products such as live pigs, eggs, palm oil, and cotton also present different market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) White Sugar - Market Situation: White sugar shows a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The Zhengzhou white sugar main contract 2605 has risen strongly, supported by lower - than - expected sugar production in domestic main producing areas and year - end demand. Overseas, the US raw sugar futures price has hit a new low due to global sugar supply surplus. As of the end of January, Guangxi's white sugar production was 402.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78.8 million tons, and the sugar production rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract 2605 has risen strongly, standing above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding, showing a strong technical trend. - Strategy: Look for support levels to participate in with light - position long orders, with a stop - loss reference of 5180 - 5200 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The soybean meal main contract 2605 first rose and then declined, testing the lower edge of the trading range again. Before the USDA monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price pulled back, and domestic oil mills' high - level soybean crushing led to sufficient supply. However, during the last week before the Spring Festival, soybean crushing plants will shut down for holidays, and the supply pressure may ease, while downstream enterprises have completed their inventory preparations [3]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract 2605 has fallen back to test the 5 - day moving average at 2729, but the lower edge of the trading range is expected to provide support, and the trading range characteristics remain unchanged. - Strategy: Participate in with light - position long orders near the lower edge of the trading range, with a stop - loss reference of 2700 - 2710 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - Market Situation: The live pig main contract 2605 hit a new low, with the market being weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased due to farmers' expectations of post - festival demand decline and the need to lock in profits. Although the demand from slaughterhouses has increased, the demand growth is lower than expected due to the substitution of beef, mutton, and poultry [5]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract 2605 continued to fall to a new low, with the MACD green column continuing, showing a weak technical trend. - Strategy: Participate in short - selling [5]. (4) Eggs - Market Situation: The egg main contract 2603 fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The Spring Festival inventory preparation is basically over, and the demand is in a gap period, with slower egg sales and increased inventory in production and circulation. The egg - laying hen inventory is relatively high, and the culling of old hens has slowed down, resulting in slow capacity reduction [7]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract 2603 fluctuates at a low level, with the futures price running below the moving average system, showing a weak technical trend. - Strategy: Place light - position short orders [7]. (5) Palm Oil - Market Situation: The palm oil main contract 2605 fluctuated in a narrow range. The market is waiting for the MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Due to the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the decrease in exports in January, the market expects the inventory to decline at the end of January. In China, the pre - festival inventory preparation for edible oils is coming to an end, the palm oil inventory is still high, and the spot trading is light [10]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract 2605 first declined and then rose, fluctuating in a narrow range, with the futures price closing near the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD green column expanding after a death cross, showing a weak technical trend. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading before the release of the MPOB report [10]. (6) Cotton - Market Situation: The cotton main contract 2605 first rose and then declined, closing with a small negative line, still in a sideways pattern. The expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton - planting area has been digested, and the market speculation has cooled down. As the Spring Festival approaches, textile enterprises' new order volume has decreased, and the intention to replenish inventory before the festival has declined. The national commercial inventory has decreased slightly. As of February 6, the cotton commercial inventory was 5.5272 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, but higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [11][13]. - Technical Analysis: The main contract 2605 closed with a small negative line, running below the short - term moving average, continuing the sideways fluctuation pattern. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading for the time being [13].