铁合金周报2026/2/6：强扭的瓜不甜-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is bearish. The weekly price fluctuated sharply and returned to the level at the beginning of the week. The weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased, demand declined slightly, and the oversupply situation was difficult to improve. The cost of downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling was completed, but the ore price remained firm. After the Spring Festival, there was still an upward expectation for manganese ore spot due to the increase in foreign - market costs. The coking coal and coke market fluctuated violently, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. The weekly price fluctuated sharply and returned to the beginning - of - week level. Before the Spring Festival, the market price was expected to remain stable with limited adjustment. Currently, the supply - demand situation of 75 ferrosilicon was better than that of 72. The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, the demand from steel mills declined, the production of magnesium metal continued to rise, and the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The price difference between 75 and 72 ferrosilicon continued to widen to a high level. The price of semi - coke remained stable, and attention should be paid to the progress of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Ore - Inventory: The total port inventory of manganese ore was 4.357 million tons, showing a slight continuous increase week - on - week. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 3.325 million tons, still lower than the same period last year; Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased slightly to 1.027 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - Inventory by Variety: In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore was 2.173 million tons, showing a slight increase week - on - week; the inventory of Gabon ore was 0.194 million tons, showing a slight decrease week - on - week and much lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore was 0.528 million tons, continuing to increase and higher than the same period last year [18]. - Port Price: The price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 36.3 yuan/ton - degree. Traders' willingness to offer discounts before the Spring Festival decreased, and some quotes increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. As the holiday approached, market merchants gradually closed for the holiday [22]. Manganese Silicon - Production: As of February 6, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 191,000 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14,340 tons/day; that in Ningxia decreased to 5,935 tons/day; that in Yunnan remained stable at 640 tons/day; that in Guizhou decreased to 1,680 tons/day; and that in Guangxi decreased to 1,630 tons/day [32]. - Demand: As of February 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 116,100 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.199 million tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly week - on - week [37]. - Price: The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5,650 yuan/ton, and that in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS was 5,920 yuan/ton [50]. - Chemical Coke Price: The price of chemical coke remained stable this week. As of February 5, the ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa were 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. - Production Profit: The immediate profit of silicon - manganese was low, and the loss of point - to - point profit narrowed slightly [57]. - Month - to - Month Spread: As of February 5, the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of manganese silicon was - 48 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [62]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The futures price fluctuated, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of February 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 207,800 tons [65]. Ferrosilicon - Production: As of February 6, the weekly production was 99,200 tons, showing a slight increase week - on - week. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,165 tons, in Qinghai was 1,310 tons, in Ningxia was 3,760 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,680 tons [76]. - Demand: - Steel Mills: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 18,500 tons, higher than the same period last year [81]. - Magnesium Metal: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port was 2,440 US dollars/ton; the market price was 16,450 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease week - on - week. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 20,671 tons, continuing to increase slightly. The magnesium metal market showed a weak pattern, and the market price of magnesium ingots still decreased slightly; the purchasing sentiment of end - user factories and traders was low, and even for small - quantity restocking orders, the inquiry prices continued to decline [88]. - Export: As of February 5, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,115 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,055 US dollars/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased month - on - month [97]. - Raw Material Situation: As of February 6, the quoted prices of semi - coke small materials in the mainstream regions remained stable. The current prices were 755 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 745 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale was 750 yuan/ton [106]. - Production Profit: As of February 6, the loss of point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon expanded slightly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 70, - 81, - 265, and - 599 yuan/ton respectively [120]. - Month - to - Month Spread: As of February 5, the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon was - 62 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening week - on - week [122]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The futures price fluctuated, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated slightly. As of February 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 42,300 tons [125]. Balance Sheet - Manganese Silicon: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand showed different trends. There were periods of oversupply and tight supply. The year - on - year cumulative growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [128]. - Ferrosilicon: From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand also showed different trends, with periods of oversupply and tight supply. The year - on - year cumulative growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [129].