格林大华期货铜期货周报：谨防美股下行冲击风险-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. stock market is facing a significant downward shock, and investors should be cautious of the spill - over risk of the U.S. stock market during the long holiday. Global risk preference has shifted, and it is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures and reduce positions in equity assets before the holiday [1][64]. Summary by Related Catalogues U.S. Stock Market - The expectation of the balance - sheet reduction policy of the incoming Fed Chairman Wash has severely hit the silver market and changed the market risk preference, leading to an upward movement of the U.S. dollar index [3][5]. - The Nasdaq is on shaky ground, with retail trading dominating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new high is a result of the rotation of funds in the U.S. stock market, which is a dangerous signal for technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq [8][11]. - The S&P software index has been severely hit due to the acceleration of AI substitution, and $400 billion in private equity credit funds are in trouble. Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has increased to $200 billion, but the market has responded negatively [13][16]. - Due to power constraints, the growth of U.S. computing power may slow down significantly, and AI progress will hit a ceiling. Microsoft in MAGA7 has tumbled into a technical bear market due to AI's impact on the software industry and power constraints on capital expenditure [18][21]. - The Nasdaq has fallen below the six - month moving average, and the rebound on Friday was a technical pullback. A downward shock in the U.S. stock market is imminent [24]. Japanese Market - After the victory of the Japanese high - level government in the House of Representatives election, Japanese government bonds will face a new round of selling pressure, and Japanese bond yields are expected to continue to soar. A new round of yen depreciation may be inevitable. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, yen carry - trade funds will flow back rapidly, impacting the global equity and bond markets [26][28]. Chinese Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index has broken through its support level. The CSI 500 Index has shown a phased top and entered an adjustment period. The CSI 300 Index has broken through its support level, with a locked - in area of 1 trillion yuan in ETFs above, forming a significant resistance level [31][34][36]. - The margin trading balance has entered a de - leveraging phase [39]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, and the real interest rate has been negative continuously, with a month - on - month growth of 0.2%. The month - on - month increase in the industrial producer purchase price index in December was 0.4%, indicating that the Chinese economy is moving towards re - inflation [42][45]. - China's export value in December reached a record high of $357.7 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%, showing resilience in exports [47]. - In December, the month - on - month value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.87 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 10.5%, indicating a stall in manufacturing investment. The month - on - month value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 15.9%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment in December was - 36.8%, hitting a new low [50][53][56]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December was 4.51 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.9%. In the context of a downward export outlook and a stall in investment, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth, but the year - on - year growth rate in December hit a new low [59]. - The acceleration of the RMB's appreciation is conducive to the continuous inflow of international capital into China [62].