贵金属期货：中期宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The mid - term of precious metal futures will experience wide - range fluctuations. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations in Oman ended with an agreement to continue dialogue. The Fed chair has been determined, and the market's trading on the new Fed chair has temporarily ended. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year. The Fed's Beige Book shows that 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight to moderate economic growth, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a moderate decline, an improvement from the past three reporting cycles. The US economy remains resilient, which provides more support for its geopolitical intervention. The recent weakening of risk - aversion factors has dampened the enthusiasm for going long on precious metals, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the mid - term [1] Key Factors to Watch - Middle - East geopolitical risk evolution, Fed leadership change, and US economic data [2] Report Content Summaries by Sections 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents figures on the internal and external prices of gold and silver futures, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures, with data sourced from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [3][7] 2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report shows figures on the US dollar index and gold price, as well as US interest rates and gold price, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [14] 3. Macroeconomic Data - The report includes figures on US CPI inflation data, PCE inflation data, weekly initial jobless claims, unemployment rate and new non - farm payrolls, PMI, retail and personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [18][22][25][26] 4. Fund Holdings and Ratios - The report provides figures on the total holdings of silver and gold ETFs, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, the gold - silver ratio, and the gold - copper ratio, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [29][32][35]