煤焦日报：市场谨慎观望，煤焦区间震荡-20260209

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending February 6, the total daily coke production of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1038 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0053 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.00162 million tons. The daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 228,580 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons per day and a year - on - year increase of 140 tons. The coke fundamentals had no significant changes this week, with both supply and demand slightly increasing at a low level. It is expected that the coke futures will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [5][31]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending February 6, the daily clean - coal production of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 755,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. Near the Spring Festival, coking - coal production will experience a short - term contraction but is expected to recover quickly after the festival. In January, the Ganqimaodu Port had a total of 30,877 vehicle clearances. Although it decreased by 17.2% compared with December, it increased by 42.9% compared with the same period last year, and the Mongolian coking - coal imports remained at a relatively high level. The total daily coke production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1038 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0053 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal have limited support, and there are still medium - to - long - term demand concerns. Considering the recent low - level stabilization of thermal - coal prices, it is expected that coking - coal prices will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern before the Spring Festival [5][31]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry News - Newly added social financing in January may increase slightly year - on - year. M1 may rise due to the low - base effect caused by the misaligned Spring Festival. Market institutions predict that the median of newly added RMB loans in January is 4.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43 trillion yuan; the median of newly added social financing is 7.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.05 trillion yuan. The month - on - month growth rate of M2 in January may decline slightly, and CPI may decline slightly year - on - year, while the year - on - year decline of PPI is expected to continue to narrow. The median of CPI year - on - year growth rate is predicted to be 0.4%, and the median of PPI year - on - year growth rate is predicted to be - 1.4% [7]. - On February 9, Mongolia's KH Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking clean coal (A9.5, V>28, S0.85, G65, Mt10) was 700 yuan/ton. All 25,600 tons of the listed quantity were sold at the base price, the same as the price on the 6th. The supply location is the customs supervision area of the Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being May 10, 2026 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Sunshine Port, quasi - first - grade,平仓) | 1,520 yuan/ton | +3.40% | +3.40% | - 10.06% | - 4.40% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade,出库) | 1,480 yuan/ton | +2.07% | +0.68% | - 8.64% | - 3.27% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 3.23% | - 3.23% | +1.69% | +4.35% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,660 yuan/ton | +4.40% | +3.11% | +11.41% | +11.41% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | +16.34% | +19.46% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open - Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,703.5 yuan/ton | - 1.07% | 1,709.5 yuan/ton | 1,679.5 yuan/ton | 16,755 | 124 | 34,909 | - 121 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,147.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | 1,149.5 yuan/ton | 1,125.0 yuan/ton | 798,141 | - 135,746 | 469,142 | - 6,791 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 - 2026 [14][15][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills from 2021 - 2026 [19][20][22]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast - furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (clean - coal inventory and operating rate), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [26][28][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis and outlook for coke and coking coal are the same as the core views, expecting short - term low - level oscillations for coke futures and low - level oscillations for coking - coal prices before the Spring Festival [31].