节前市场资金谨慎豆类油脂震荡偏弱：豆类日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 9, the overall trend of beans and oils was oscillating weakly. The price of soybean No. 1 rose and then fell, fluctuating narrowly around the 10 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of soybean No. 2 oscillated weakly, rising and then falling, pressured by the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of soybean meal oscillated strongly, pressured by the 20 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages with little change in funds; the price of rapeseed meal oscillated weakly, pressured by the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds. The price of oils maintained an oscillation. The price of soybean oil oscillated mainly around the intersection of the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages with little change in funds; the price of palm oil oscillated weakly, temporarily supported by the 20 - day moving average and pressured by the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of rapeseed oil oscillated weakly, pressured by the 5 - day and 60 - day moving averages and temporarily supported by the 20 - day moving average with little change in funds [3]. - The beans market is weak overseas and stable domestically. Before the Spring Festival, market trading is cautious. Brazil's new soybean harvest progress is faster than in previous years, and the export expectation in February is strong. The expectation of a bumper harvest is continuously strengthened, continuously squeezing the export space of US soybeans. The market focus has shifted to the upcoming USDA monthly supply - demand report. Analysts generally expect the report to slightly lower the US soybean year - end inventory but at the same time raise the Brazilian soybean production forecast. The global supply remains loose. In the domestic market, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most soybean crushing plants have shut down one after another, and the oil mill operating rate has significantly declined. Although the output of soybean meal has decreased, the pre - festival feed enterprise inventory has basically been completed, spot purchases have become lighter, and market trading has become lighter. Against the background of limited terminal demand and sufficient factory raw materials, the supply of soybean meal remains loose, mainly showing a weak oscillation [4]. - The oils market has a mix of long and short factors, showing an oscillatory adjustment. The core market focus is on the upcoming MPOB monthly report. Surveys show that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January is expected to drop to around 2.91 million tons, which is expected to end the continuous inventory accumulation trend and provide potential support for the market. At the same time, the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy continues to boost the price of US soybean oil and the global industrial demand prospects for oils. However, before the Spring Festival, the domestic market shows a characteristic of being strong overseas and weak domestically. The Spring Festival inventory preparation is basically over, spot trading has become light, and the willingness of funds to leave the market has increased, resulting in the performance of oils being significantly weaker than that of the overseas market. In the short term, as the long holiday approaches, the departure of funds may drag the pre - festival oils to continue the adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The USDA predicts that although government subsidies are close to a record level, accounting for nearly 29% of farmers' net income, the net income of US farms this year will still decline by 0.7%, indicating that US farmers are facing increasing economic pressure. In 2026, the net income of US farms will reach $153.4 billion, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous year. The inflation - adjusted net farm income will decrease by $4.1 billion or 2.6% year - on - year. Without government subsidies, the net farm income this year is $109.1 billion, a year - on - year decrease of nearly 12%. The USDA predicts that farmers' cash income will increase this year, soybean income will remain basically stable, and wheat income will decline. Due to the decline in egg and milk prices, livestock income is expected to decline, while beef cattle income will continue to increase [7]. - The Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) estimates that the soybean export volume from January to February in Brazil may reach 14 million tons. However, affected by factors such as a stronger local currency, high freight rates, and oversupply, the amount of soybeans sold by Brazilian farmers to crushers or exporters is expected to account for only 34% - 38% of the expected output, lower than the historical level. Analysts expect Brazil to harvest a record 180 million tons of soybeans, about 10 million tons more than last year. By the end of February, Brazil's soybean export volume this year will reach 13.9 million tons, higher than 7.5 million tons in the same period last year. Low farmer sales may lead to a large amount of soybeans flooding the market later, causing logistics bottlenecks, pushing up freight rates, and resulting in greater price discounts [8]. - As of February 4, the sowing of soybeans in the 2025/26 season in Argentina has ended. However, the crop growth and moisture conditions have significantly deteriorated. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago; 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of the early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, suffering from severe water shortages. The Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) predicted on January 14, 2026, that the soybean output in Argentina in the 2025/26 season would be 47 million tons, the same as the earlier prediction and lower than 49.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season [9]. - A Brazilian private meteorological agency, Rural Clima, issued a weather warning that there will be heavy rainfall in the central - northern regions of Brazil in the next few days. With the return of rainfall, the drought risk in the southern Rio Grande do Sul state in the second half of February will be significantly reduced. In March, the northern regions of Brazil are expected to receive sufficient rainfall [10]. - The global weather report shows that in the next two weeks, the temperature in the US plains will be higher than normal, with more precipitation in the northern/southern plains, the west, and the north of the Midwest, and dry weather in other regions. In South America, the northern corn and soybean planting belts in the Argentine Pampas will be cool and mostly wet, other regions will be dry, and the central part of Brazil is expected to have more precipitation, which may be beneficial to crop growth. However, the harvest work is increasing, and the planting speed of second - season corn in February is accelerating. Overall, the soil moisture is still low. If the rainfall cannot continue to increase in the next two months, it may affect the upcoming corn crops. Long - term forecasts show that the rainfall in central Brazil will be lower than normal. Argentina may have several waves of showers next week, bringing much - needed rainfall. The temperature in the northern plains of the US will rise next week. There are several precipitation opportunities in the next few days, but the precipitation is not expected to be large [11]. 3.2 Spot Market Prices | Variety | Grade/Indicator | Price (Yuan/ton) | Change from the previous day (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean (Dalian) | Imported second - class | 3950 | 0 | | Soybean (Average) | —— | 4072 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Zhangjiagang) | ≥43% | 3080 | - 20 | | Soybean Meal (Average) | —— | 3154 | - 5 | | Soybean Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Fourth - grade | 8640 | + 20 | | Soybean Oil (Average) | —— | 8601 | + 20 | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 24 - degree | 9060 | - 20 | | Palm Oil (Average) | —— | 9086 | - 20 | | Rapeseed Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Imported fourth - grade | 9940 | 0 | | Rapeseed Oil (Average) | —— | 10046 | 0 | [13] 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing Profits | Location | Soybean | Soybean Meal | Soybean Oil | Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Heilongjiang (Domestic) | 4100 | 3320 | 8610 | - 7.60 | | Dalian (Domestic) | 4160 | 3180 | 8420 | - 214.50 | | Dalian (Imported) | 3950 | 3180 | 8420 | 16.10 | | Tianjin (Domestic) | 4260 | 3160 | 8400 | - 334.20 | | Tianjin (Imported) | 3940 | 3160 | 8400 | 6.60 | | Shandong (Domestic) | 4400 | 3080 | 8450 | - 529.60 | | Qingdao (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8420 | - 26.70 | | Zhangjiagang (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8640 | - 26.70 | | Dongguan (Imported) | 3950 | 3060 | 8620 | - 56.70 | | Rizhao (Imported) | 3920 | 3020 | 8450 | - 26.70 | | Yantai (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8450 | - 26.70 | | Zhanjiang (Imported) | 3950 | 3080 | 8620 | - 56.70 | | Fangcheng (Imported) | 3920 | 3100 | 8570 | - 56.70 | | Qinzhou (Imported) | 3950 | 3100 | 8570 | - 56.70 | | Lianyungang (Imported) | 3920 | 3100 | 8640 | - 26.70 | | Nanjing (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8660 | - 26.70 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts including soybean port inventory, soybean disk pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [15][17][19][21][23][25]