现实格局偏弱，钢矿弱势震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.84%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. As the holiday approaches, both supply and demand of rebar are weakening, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure, with cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected to continue the weak oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.55%, and both volume and open interest increased. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level while the demand is weakening. The fundamentals are weak, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level under pressure. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensified contradiction of weakening demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a low level with a daily decline of 0.46%, and both volume and open interest decreased. At present, although the demand for iron ore has slightly recovered, the improvement is limited, and the supply pressure has limited relief. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the ore price is expected to remain under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - According to the C50 Wind Direction Index survey, the liquidity in February is likely to remain stable and loose. Although there are three phased disturbances in February, the central bank's attitude of loose monetary policy is obvious, and liquidity injection is expected to increase. Among 20 market institutions surveyed, 1 believes there is basically no liquidity gap, 17 think the overall capital pressure is not large and the liquidity gap may be about one trillion yuan, and 2 believe it is neutral and tight with a liquidity gap exceeding two trillion yuan [7]. - In 2026, the sales of automobile trade - in programs exceeded 50 billion yuan. As of February 5, 2026, there were 335,000 subsidy applications for automobile trade - in, driving new - car sales of 53.77 billion yuan. In January, the average price of new cars involved in trade - in exceeded 160,000 yuan, and the number of scrapped automobiles recycled nationwide was 659,000, a year - on - year increase of 50.2% [8]. - On February 6, 2026, Brazil's Department of Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services issued Announcement No. 6 of 2026, making a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on wire rods originating from China and Russia. It suggested continuing the investigation without implementing temporary anti - dumping measures and extended the deadline for making a final ruling to within 18 months from the date of filing the case [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,190 yuan, 3,150 yuan, and 3,304 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0 yuan, - 10 yuan, and - 2 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,240 yuan, 3,140 yuan, and 3,283 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan, - 10 yuan, and - 1 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,910 yuan with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160 yuan with no change. The volume - spiral spread is 5 yuan, and the spiral - scrap spread is 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 757 yuan with a change of 1 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) is 767 yuan with no change, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates are 8.45 yuan and 23.46 yuan respectively, with changes of 0.11 yuan and - 0.11 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 99.58 yuan with a change of - 1.32 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 98.70 yuan with a change of - 1.60 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,064 yuan, with a decline of 0.84%. The highest price is 3,083 yuan, the lowest price is 3,060 yuan, the trading volume is 665,539 lots with a decrease of 57,768 lots, and the open interest is 2,005,501 lots with an increase of 90,248 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,239 yuan, with a decline of 0.55%. The highest price is 3,253 yuan, the lowest price is 3,235 yuan, the trading volume is 348,786 lots with an increase of 72,117 lots, and the open interest is 1,499,810 lots with an increase of 15,200 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 761.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.46%. The highest price is 765.0 yuan, the lowest price is 757.5 yuan, the trading volume is 169,680 lots with a decrease of 46,579 lots, and the open interest is 513,384 lots with a decrease of 1,361 lots [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social warehouses), and iron ore inventories at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines. It also shows charts of steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [14][20][29] 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, as the holiday approaches, both supply and demand are seasonally weakening, and inventory is continuously accumulating. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons, and the inventory level is significantly higher than the same period last lunar year. Demand is in a weak seasonal pattern, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, dragging down the steel price. The cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected to continue the weak oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has little change, and inventory has increased again. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly by 50 tons, remaining at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high. The demand for hot - rolled coil is weakening, and although the downstream cold - rolled production is at a high level, there are concerns about demand. The price will continue to oscillate at a low level under pressure, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is continuously rising. Although the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, the improvement in demand is limited due to the poor profitability of steel mills and the accumulation of steel market contradictions. The supply of overseas ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply pressure has limited relief. The ore price is expected to remain under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [38].