有色日报：有色震荡运行-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The main futures price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 102,000 yuan. The open interest of Shanghai copper changed little. The weakening US dollar index during the day was positive for copper prices. The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream buyers were more willing to replenish inventory at low prices. The open interest of Shanghai copper has been declining recently, and short - term capital drive is weak approaching the Spring Festival holiday. Attention can be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, and the open interest of Shanghai aluminum continued to rise. There was a significant divergence in the intraday performance of non - ferrous metals. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum had a seasonal inventory build - up. Technically, after a sharp decline, aluminum prices fluctuated with a narrowing amplitude. Attention can be paid to the support at the early - February low [7]. - Nickel: The main futures price of Shanghai nickel opened higher and fluctuated around 135,000 yuan. Nickel prices were relatively strong. In the short - term, the driving force was not strong, and the port inventory of nickel ore was at a high level in the same period of previous years with seasonal destocking. In the long - term, the expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia led to a reversal of the supply - demand expectation. Technically, after a sharp decline, nickel prices fluctuated with a narrowing amplitude. Attention can be paid to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 yuan [8]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On February 9, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic copper was 341,200 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons compared with February 5 [10]. - Aluminum: On February 9, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic aluminum was 875,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared with February 5 [11]. - Nickel: On February 9, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,900 - 145,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 9,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The charts include copper spot premium and discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and Shanghai copper monthly spread [13][15][16]. - Aluminum: The charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][38].