玉米淀粉日报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong, while Northeast corn is stable. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern ports is strong today. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market expects North China corn to be stable before the Spring Festival, while Northeast corn may face selling pressure later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the 07 corn contract has limited downside space. The 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [4][7][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - Futures Market: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2257 with no change; C2605 closed at 2274, down 5 (-0.22%); C2509 closed at 2301, up 1 (0.04%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2587, up 4 (0.15%); CS2605 closed at 2596, up 2 (0.08%); CS2509 closed at 2618, up 2 (0.08%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2] - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some areas rising slightly. The basis of corn and starch also varied by region. The price difference of corn and starch across different periods and varieties also changed [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - Corn: US corn prices have fallen, but the global supply pressure has weakened, and it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. Wheat prices are strong, and corn is still cost - effective. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7] - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the corn spot price in Shandong is strong, and the starch price is around 2780 yuan. The starch inventory in Northeast China is stable, and the overall corn starch inventory has declined this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract oscillated narrowly following corn, and the spot price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, the 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel, and the 07 and 05 corn contracts can be short - bought on dips. For arbitrage, conduct a reverse spread of 3 - 7 corn and widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips [10] Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments show the historical trends of North Port's corn ex - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][17][18][20][21]