银河期货沥青日报-20260209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows crude oil fluctuations [6] - Demand in various regions is gradually weakening due to cooling and approaching the Spring Festival, but supported by low inventory and supply, spot prices remain stable, showing a supply - demand dual - weak situation [6] - There are still expectations of a raw material shortage and cost increase in the long - term asphalt market [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On February 9, 2026, compared with February 6, 2026, BU2603 (the main contract) fell 52 points to 3334, a decline of 1.54%; BU2604 fell 54 points to 3347, a decline of 1.59%; BU2605 fell 48 points to 3341, a decline of 1.42%; SC2603 fell 1.2 points to 464.2, a decline of 0.26%; Brent first - line fell 1 point to 67.34, a decline of 1.49%. The main contract position decreased by 1.6 million hands to 6.7 million hands, a decline of 18.95%, and the trading volume decreased by 3.9 million hands to 12.3 million hands, a decline of 24.22%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 40,070 tons [2] - Basis and Spread: BU04 - 05 decreased by 6 points to 6, a decline of 50%; BU04 - 03 increased by 2 points to - 13, an increase of 13.33%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased by 24 points to - 7, an increase of 77.42%; the East - China - main contract basis increased by 64 points to - 87, an increase of 42.38%; the South - China - main contract basis increased by 54 points to - 37, an increase of 59.34% [2] - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The Shandong market price fell 30 points to 3210, a decline of 0.93%; the East - China market price increased 10 points to 3260, an increase of 0.31%; the South - China market price remained unchanged at 3310. Shandong gasoline increased 13 points to 7183, an increase of 0.18%; Shandong diesel fell 35 points to 5613, a decline of 0.62%; Shandong petroleum coke fell 20 points to 2760, a decline of 0.72%. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price fell 0.01 to 6.9523, a decline of 0.10% [2] - Spread and Profit: The asphalt refinery profit increased 27.44 to - 50.98, an increase of 34.99%; the refined - oil comprehensive profit increased 37.03 to - 99.38, an increase of 27.14%; the BU - SC cracking decreased 39.03 to - 426.71, a decline of 10.07%; the gasoline spot - Brent increased 68.12 to 734.38, an increase of 10.23%; the diesel spot - Brent increased 25.65 to 35, an increase of 274.27% [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - Market Overview: On February 9, the domestic asphalt market average price remained unchanged at 3324 yuan/ton. In the north, terminal projects were stagnant, and prices were stable. In the south, the rush - work demand decreased, and prices were firm. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3220 - 3230 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3260 - 3260 yuan/ton. In South China, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3240 - 3300 yuan/ton [4][5] - Market Outlook: The asphalt market follows crude oil due to geopolitical factors. Demand is weakening, but low inventory and supply support stable prices. There are still expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases in the long - term [6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides charts including BU main - contract closing price, BU main - contract position, East - China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline, and Shandong refinery diesel [9]