银河期货油脂日报-20260209

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Near the holiday, funds may take profits, sentiment is expected to fall, and there is a need for a correction in the oil and fat market. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies with light positions or waiting for the correction to end and then going long. Overall, the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation [9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on February 9, 2026 were 8114 (with a rise of 12), 9014 (with a fall of 12), and 9137 (with a fall of 7) respectively. The spot basis and its changes in different regions for various oils are also presented. For example, the spot basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 500, 380, and 280 respectively [2] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 50 (up 2), 26 (down 2), and 34 (down 20) respectively [2] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The Y - P spread for the 05 contract was - 900 (with a change of 24), the OI - Y spread was 1023, the OI - P spread was 123 (with a change of 5), and the oil - meal ratio was 2.97 (up 0.01) [2] - Import Profits: The on - paper profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 198, and the on - paper profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1420 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 5th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 74.2, 70.1, and 24.2 million tons respectively, compared with 94.7, 46.2, and 25.2 million tons in the previous week and 95.6, 88.7, and 62.2 million tons in the same period last year [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - International Market: As of February 4, the soybean sowing in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was completed. However, the crop growth and moisture conditions deteriorated significantly. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 5.6% less than a week ago, and 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 8.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, and 16% of late - sown soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, both facing water shortages [4] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm oil: On February 9, the palm oil futures price fluctuated and slightly declined. As of February 6, the national key - area commercial inventory was 72.67 million tons, a 3.61% increase from the previous week. The origin price was stable with a slight decline, and the on - paper import profit was inverted by about 200. The basis was stable with a slight weakness, and the spot market trading volume increased slightly. In the short term, palm oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation [4][6] - Soybean oil: On February 9, the soybean oil futures price fluctuated and slightly increased. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.484 million tons, and the opening rate was 68.33%. As of February 6, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1552 million tons, a 0.78% increase from the previous week. Currently, soybean oil is gradually reducing inventory, but the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis is relatively stable. In the short term, the soybean oil market will follow the palm oil market [6] - Rapeseed oil: On February 9, the rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and slightly declined. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 10,000 tons, and the opening rate was 2.67%. As of February 6, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion increased to around - 1300. Recently, China has purchased a large amount of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring supply pressure in the far - term, but in the short term, the rapeseed oil inventory is gradually reducing, and the actual available inventory is tight, supporting the near - term basis [7] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Consider short - selling on rallies with light positions or waiting for the correction to end and then going long. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation [9] - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage on the Y59 contract when the price is high [10] - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, the monthly spreads of Y, P, and OI, and the cross - variety spreads of Y - P and OI - Y, with the time span from 2017 to 2026 [14][15][18]