银河期货液化气日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG market is currently trading around geopolitical factors, with the repeated sentiment amplifying price fluctuations in the market. The international LPG spot supply is generally tight, and winter demand remains strong, providing support for the overseas supply - demand fundamentals. However, the domestic fundamentals are gradually becoming more relaxed. Although the arrival volume is low, the abundant refinery off - gas and low chemical demand create some resistance to the upward movement of the price. With the Iran negotiation yet to be finalized, there are still tail risks. The domestic LPG market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - Domestic Futures: The price of PG2602 on February 9, 2026, was 4194, a decrease of 64 from February 6. The main position decreased by 7789 to 36863, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6932 [2]. - Domestic Spot: In the domestic spot market, the prices of products in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of South China refinery gas decreased by 70 to 4765, and the price of South China imported gas decreased by 25 to 4890. The price of East China refinery gas remained unchanged at 4475, while the price of East China imported gas increased by 40 to 4979. The price of Shandong refinery gas increased by 30 to 4470, and the price of Shandong ether - after C4 increased by 130 to 4370 [2]. - Basis: The basis on February 9, 2026, was 554, an increase of 14 from February 6 [2]. - External Market Prices: The price of BRENT decreased by 0.5 to 67.5, and the price of MB C3 M1 decreased by 0.002 to 0.6. Other external market prices remained unchanged [2]. - Disk Profits: The import profit FEI decreased by 59.1 to - 436.5, and the PDH FEI decreased by 55.2 to - 834.0 [2]. - Price Ratios: The FEI/BRENT ratio increased by 0.07 to 8.6, while the FEI/MOPJ ratio remained unchanged at - 12.2 [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - Indian refiners are avoiding purchasing Russian crude oil to promote the US - India trade agreement. - Namibia refuses to recognize the acquisition of offshore rights in the Luderitz Basin by TotalEnergies and Petrobras. - The United Steelworkers of America has reached a national - level salary and welfare agreement, avoiding a national - level strike in the refining industry. - The post - disaster复产 of Chevron's Tengiz oilfield is progressing slowly, dragging down the CPC crude oil exports from Kazakhstan. - Shell's CEO has suspended further investment in Kazakhstan due to ongoing legal disputes. - A source said that Japan's Mitsui Group is close to acquiring a stake in a Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. - The UK union said that BP has no intention to comply with the national - level collective bargaining agreement in the oil industry [3]. 3.3 Spot Overview - Shandong Region: The estimated price of civil gas in Shandong was 4470 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The market showed a narrow - range price adjustment over the weekend. With the decrease in the inflow of external resources, the overall trading atmosphere was smooth. Coupled with the recovery of downstream products, the market rose steadily today. The benchmark price of ether - after C4 in Shandong was 4370 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 130 yuan/ton. The ether - after C4 market in Shandong showed a general upward trend, with a mild trading atmosphere. The inflow of external resources decreased, and the low - supply situation continued. Most manufacturers had smooth sales, and downstream profits were stable, with still some enthusiasm for entering the market. It is expected that the ether - after C4 market in Shandong will continue the trend of a slight increase [6]. - East China Region: The mainstream transaction price of civil gas in East China was 4475 yuan/ton, the same as the previous working day. Today, the price of civil gas in the East China market was stable, while the price of imported gas increased, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers actively entered the market to purchase. Both refineries and imported gas supplies were limited, and the price difference between imported and civil gas was large. It is expected that the East China market will generally remain stable in the short - term, with a possible increase in the low - price range [6]. - South China Region: The average transaction price of domestic gas in South China was 4765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of imported gas in South China was 4890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. Today, the main refineries in South China started to reduce prices to clear inventory. The terminal transactions intended to maintain stability or even explore price increases, but the pre - holiday demand decreased while the supply was relatively abundant, resulting in a stable and sporadically decreasing final transaction price. Refineries prioritize pre - holiday sales, operating cautiously while ensuring price competitiveness. Although terminals have the intention to support prices due to cost support, in the context of a loose supply pattern, there is still pressure to push up prices. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will be weakly adjusted [7]. - North China Region: The benchmark price of civil gas in North China was 4332 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The North China market was generally stable today, with sporadic small - scale adjustments. Downstream still had some restocking demand, and the overall production and sales maintained a balance [7].