银河期货航运日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is continuously gaming the implementation of price increases and the situation of geopolitical conflicts. The EC market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. MSK has announced the suspension of the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on the Nordic routes. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot freight rates [6]. - The freight volume is gradually entering the decline phase after reaching the peak. The supply - side shipping capacity deployment has little change compared with the previous period. The shipping capacity in the first week of March after the Spring Festival is relatively small, and then rebounds with the resumption of work and production. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates are in the off - season from February to April. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities starting from April 1st, the expected rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and it is still difficult for a large number of ships on the European routes to resume operation in the first half of the year. The risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations and the military deployment in the Middle East [7]. - For trading strategies, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival as the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For arbitrage, positive spreads between June and October contracts should be rolled at low levels [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Different futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest, and open interest change rates. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,756.0, up 16.1 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 124.0 (down 44.39%) and an open interest of 1,437.0 (up 0.56%) [4]. - The price differences between different contracts (such as EC02 - EC04, EC02 - EC06, etc.) and their price changes are also presented. For example, the price difference between EC02 and EC04 is 518, up 9.3 [4]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Different container freight rates (such as SCFIS European Line, SCFIS US West Line, etc.) have different prices, week - on - week and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European Line is at 1657.94 points, down 7.49% week - on - week and 29.54% year - on - year [4]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price is $63.28 per barrel, up 0.80% week - on - week and down 10.29% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price is $67.44 per barrel, up 0.84% week - on - week and down 9.3% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is in a state of continuous gaming. The EC market shows a volatile trend. MSK's decision to stop collecting PSS on the Nordic routes and the post - holiday spot freight rates need to be monitored. The demand for goods is in a downward phase after reaching the peak, and the supply - side shipping capacity deployment has little change. Geopolitical factors also have an impact on the shipping market [6][7]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival as the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as the vacuum period of spot freight rates before the festival and geopolitical risks [8]. - Arbitrage: Positive spreads between June and October contracts should be rolled at low levels [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US has imposed tariffs on countries trading with Iran and sanctioned 15 entities, 2 individuals, and 14 ships related to Iranian oil and petrochemical products [11]. - Spain hopes to further develop its relationship with China, and the Spanish Prime Minister plans to visit China this year [12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump to discuss US - Iran negotiations, and the Iranian Foreign Minister has threatened US military bases in the region [13].