粕类日报：供应压力增加，盘面整体下行-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pressure on the domestic soybean meal market has increased due to the decline in cost and improvement in supply. Rapeseed meal is under downward pressure, mainly affected by the decline of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. The short - term spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend. The overall supply and demand of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure. The domestic spot supply is tight, the market demand is good, and the price is supported. The trading strategy is mainly based on a bearish view, with the spread of MRM expanding and the option of selling a wide - straddle strategy [3][4][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing prices of most soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts declined on February 9, 2026. The spot basis of soybean meal in some regions decreased, while in others it increased. The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expanded, and the spreads between different months of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] - Soybean Pressing Profit: The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans varied by shipping date. For example, the pressing profit in April was 36.13 (disk) and 112.63 (spot), with a change of 9.03 compared to the previous day [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The U.S. soybean's carry - over stocks and quarterly grain inventory data are bearish. Although the export of U.S. soybeans has improved, the overall supply - demand is still loose. In South America, Brazil's new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and pressing has improved [4] - Domestic Market: The domestic spot supply is tightening. The oil mill's operating rate has increased, but the overall quantity has decreased, and the提货量 has also decreased slightly. The inventory is declining. The market transaction has increased significantly, and the overall demand is good. The subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the demand is average, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [7] 3.3 Logic Analysis - U.S. Soybeans: Driven by macro - factors, U.S. soybeans are running strongly in the short - term, but there is still long - term pressure. The uncertainty in the international market mainly comes from the weather. If the yield is affected, it may drive up the price [8] - Domestic Market: The subsequent arrival volume of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot has certain support, but the disk has fully reflected the positive factors, so there is still pressure. The rapeseed meal disk is also under downward pressure, mainly due to the increase in the subsequent arrival volume. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Single - side: Adopt a bearish strategy - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9]