铁合金日报-20260209

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is the "Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily" dated February 9, 2026 [1] - The researcher is Zhou Tao, with futures practice certificate number F03134259 and investment consulting certificate number Z0021009 [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5594, down 30 for the day and week, with a trading volume of 163,653 (down 71,235) and an open interest of 159,348 (up 7,845) [3] - SM main contract closed at 5812, down 44 for the day and 22 for the week, with a trading volume of 173,864 (down 32,409) and an open interest of 370,051 (up 11,034) [3] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5390, down 50 for the day and 30 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5370, down 30 for the day and 80 for the week; in Qinghai, it was 5350, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 5750, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 5730, down 70 for the week [3] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5650, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5590, down 20 for the day and 30 for the week; in Guangxi, it was 5750, down 30 for the day; in Jiangsu, it was 5800, down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5750, down 30 for the week [3] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -204, down 20 for the day; the Ningxia - main contract basis was -224, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; the Qinghai - main contract basis was -244, up 30 for the day and week; the Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 360, up 50 for the day and 30 for the week; the SF - SM spread was -218, up 14 for the day and down 8 for the week [3] - For silicomanganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -162, up 44 for the day and down 8 for the week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was -222, up 24 for the day and down 8 for the week; the Guangxi - main contract basis was -62, up 14 for the day and 22 for the week; the Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, down 30 for the day and up 30 for the week [3] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was priced at 41.5, unchanged for the day and week; South African semi - carbonate was 36.3, unchanged for the day and up 0.1 for the week; Gabon lump was 42.8, unchanged for the day and up 0.2 for the week [3] - For semi - coke small pieces, in Shaanxi, it was 755, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 805, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 745, unchanged [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On February 9, ferroalloy futures prices rose and then fell. The ferrosilicon main contract closed at 5594, down 0.53%, with an increase of 7,845 in open interest; the silicomanganese main contract closed at 5812, down 0.75%, with an increase of 11,034 in open interest [5] - For ferrosilicon, on the 9th, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness, and the spot price in some regions fell by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the output of sample enterprises rebounded slightly from a low level, but temporary power outages in some production areas in Ningxia led to some output losses, and the statistical data this week may decline again. On the demand side, steel inventories began to accumulate seasonally, and steel output also decreased seasonally before the Spring Festival, but hot metal output was relatively stable, and raw material demand was temporarily supported. On the cost side, the electricity prices for ferroalloys in production areas were generally stable in January, and some areas saw an increase. Overall, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon were relatively stable. Near the long holiday, it was recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions at high prices [5] - For silicomanganese, on the 9th, the manganese ore spot was generally stable, and the silicomanganese spot was stable with a slight weakness, and the spot price in some regions fell by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate and output both decreased again. With the current poor profit level, it was expected that the output within the sample would remain at a low level. On the demand side, steel output began to decrease seasonally, and the hot metal output from blast furnaces was currently stable, but the seasonal reduction in electric furnace production was more obvious, which had a greater impact on the demand for silicomanganese. On the cost side, the manganese ore inventory at ports decreased again at a low level, the spot price at ports was firm, and the US dollar quotes for manganese ore from overseas mines in March continued to rise slightly. Overall, the supply and demand of silicomanganese were stable, and the cost support was strong. Near the long holiday, it was recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions at high prices [6] - Unilateral: Near the long holiday, it was recommended to partially take profits on previous long positions at high prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Important Information - On the 9th, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 37 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump was 43 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton degree [8] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March was 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 80.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April was 31.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 65.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 3.7%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June was 51.1% [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot price of silicomanganese, the ferroalloy electricity price, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [9][12][14][15][17][18][20][25]