生猪周报2026.02.06：生猪：标肥价差走扩，节后或有压栏-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a game - playing period, and it is still a long - way to go for capacity reduction even with the government's call. The futures market is affected by the post - Spring Festival demand slump and pre - Spring Festival spot price weakness. The LH2603 contract has fallen below the breeding cost, with limited downside, and the LH2605 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - In the first half of 2026, it will be difficult for the breeding end to achieve profitability, and the breeding end will be cautious about holding back pigs for fattening and secondary fattening [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, slaughterhouse orders increased, but the market was generally loose as the breeding end actively sold pigs to avoid post - Spring Festival supply pressure. As of February 5, the average spot price in Zhengzhou, Henan was 12.88 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous week. The futures price had a large discount, and the market was pessimistic about post - Spring Festival pig prices [9]. - In January, as the spot price was weak, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing piglets and sows cooled. As of February 4, the average price of 15kg piglets in Henan was 29.8 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 29, the price of binary sows (50kg) was stable at 1559 yuan/head [13]. - In January 2026, Wen's sold 2963600 pigs, with a significant month - on - month decrease of 35.05% and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.20%. Muyuan sold 7009000 commercial pigs, with a revenue of 10.566 billion yuan, an average price of 12.57 yuan/kg, and a profit of 731 million yuan. In 2025, the profitability among the top 30 pig enterprises varied greatly [19]. - In 2025, the national industrial feed production reached 342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. Pig feed contributed over 80% of the growth [20]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - By the end of 2025, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 160000 or 2.9%. Since September 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows has shown a downward trend, but the market's expectation for capacity reduction weakened in January 2026 due to the rebound of the spot price [22]. - In December 2025, the production index remained high. The farrowing rate of fattening pigs decreased slightly month - on - month. The production performance of sows and pigs was at a relatively high level [24]. - According to Steel Union data, the number of piglets born in December 2025 was 5.71 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32%. The market supply of commercial pigs will remain high in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to ease after the second quarter [26]. - The post - Spring Festival slaughter pressure may decrease. It is expected that the slaughter volume of 10 listed enterprises in January may slightly increase, and the slaughter weight will decline. In January, the sample large - scale enterprises slightly exceeded the slaughter plan, and the planned slaughter volume in February decreased by 15.3% month - on - month [29]. - As of February 5, the national average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 1.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous week. Since February, the price difference has widened significantly [33]. - As of January 30, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 124 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was 25 yuan/head. The average breeding cost in the industry is around 12.5 - 13 yuan/kg. As of January 28, the pig - grain ratio was 5.76:1, below the national third - level reserve warning line [36]. 3.3 Demand - side and Inventory Analysis - This week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 38.49%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from the previous week and 27.65 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate will increase before the Little New Year and then the slaughterhouses will gradually shut down [41]. - As of February 2, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased month - on - month. Since January, the breeding end has actively sold large - weight pigs and commercial pigs before the Spring Festival [44]. - As of February 6, the frozen meat storage rate of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week. The frozen meat inventory has shown a slight downward trend [47]. 3.4 Spread and Basis Analysis - The LH2603 contract has a large discount after the Spring Festival. As it has fallen below the breeding cost and the bearish expectations have been mostly fulfilled, the downward space is limited. The price of the LH2605 contract is higher than that of the LH2603 contract, and the spread is close to the average level of previous years. If the post - festival opening price exceeds expectations, a long spread strategy can be considered [51].