尿素周报：节前预收逐步推进，待发订单仍有支撑-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The daily production of the urea industry has rebounded to the high - level of the same period. On the demand side, agricultural demand in some regions has followed up, and the current compound fertilizer production maintains a certain support for urea demand. However, there is an expectation that the downstream enterprises' production may decline during the approaching holiday. In the short term, the pre - sales of urea enterprises before the festival are gradually advancing, and the pending orders still provide support. The futures price may continue to trade in a high - level consolidation, and the UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - long Viewpoint Summary - Supply: The daily production has rebounded to the high - level of the same period. The weekly urea production is 146.92 tons (+0.98%), including 124.28 tons of coal - based urea production and 22.64 tons of gas - based urea production, with an average daily production of 20.98 tons [4][22]. - Demand: Attention should be paid to the changes in the compound fertilizer production rate. The compound fertilizer production rate is 41.79% (up 0.45% week - on - week), and the finished product inventory is 74.93 tons (down 0.63 tons week - on - week). The melamine production rate is 57.95% (down 0.85% week - on - week) [4][33]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continues to decline. The inventory of urea enterprises is 91.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63 tons. The port inventory is 16.5 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.1 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 8.82 days (a week - on - week increase of 2.23 days) [4][30]. - Cost and Profit: The coal price is stable, and the urea profit has increased week - on - week [4]. - Basis and Spread: The 5 - 9 spread is strong, and the 05 basis has strengthened [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Domestic Market Price: The domestic urea market price fluctuated narrowly this week [6]. - International Market Price: The international urea market price has increased [12]. - Supply: The daily production has rebounded to the high - level of the same period [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continues to decline, while the port inventory has increased slightly, and the pending orders of enterprises have increased [26]. - Demand: Attention should be paid to the changes in the compound fertilizer production rate. The compound fertilizer production has increased slightly, while the melamine production has decreased [32]. - Raw Material End: The coal price is stable [35]. - Urea - related Product Spread: No specific content provided [46].