瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - On Monday, the HC2605 contract continued to decline. Macroscopically, the US President signed an executive order to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was stable with a capacity utilization rate of 78.97% and a production of 3.0916 million tons; terminal demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declines, and tariff disturbances put pressure on steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a low level. The reference view is that the trend is oscillating downward, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,239 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the position volume of the HC main contract was 1,499,810 lots, up 15,200 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 9,478 lots, up 20,335 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was - 19 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 249,176 tons, up 23,197 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 175 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 41 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 763 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.3697 million tons, up 1.1845 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 448,200 tons, up 6,800 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.9257 million tons, up 141,700 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.5609 million tons, down 26,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.55%, up 0.53 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.71%, up 0.26 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0916 million tons, down 500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.97%, down 0.02 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 787,500 tons, up 15,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.8045 million tons, up 21,200 tons. The monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 380,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Six cities in Hebei launched a Level II emergency response for heavy air pollution on February 8. This week, 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 75 billion yuan, 105.5 billion yuan, 75 billion yuan, 118.5 billion yuan, and 31.5 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [2].