瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - performance of Brazilian cotton has significantly weakened, and the export of Brazilian cotton faces resistance due to the low - priced US cotton and the increased import of US cotton by Southeast Asian countries. The domestic market has sufficient supply of domestic and imported cotton, with a significant increase in the circulable volume. The port inventory of imported cotton is in a state of more inflow than outflow. Downstream spinning enterprises have successively shut down for holidays, stopped purchasing raw materials, and the yarn inventory has increased significantly. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term considering the approaching long holiday [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengmian main contract closing price is 14,580 yuan/ton, unchanged; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 116,637 hands, an increase of 1,801 hands; main contract holdings of cotton are 700,704 hands, a decrease of 270 hands; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,580 sheets, an increase of 5 sheets. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 1,168 hands, an increase of 136 hands; the main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 11,525 hands, an increase of 360 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity of cotton yarn is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,967 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,285 yuan/ton, the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 13,542 yuan/ton. The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 22,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,488 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 848,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons; the import volume of cotton is 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the import cotton profit is 2,425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5.7847 million tons, an increase of 1.1011 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 25.12 days, a decrease of 1.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.76 days, an increase of 1.42 days; the monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, an increase of 0.093 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, an increase of 18,187,260,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, an increase of 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 13.07%, an increase of 0.08%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 13.07%, an increase of 0.09%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.99%, a decrease of 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.49%, a decrease of 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 4, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton by national cotton processing enterprises is 32,518,586 bales, totaling 7,340,445 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 7,042,923 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.14%. Brazil exported 316,850 tons of cotton in January, a year - on - year decrease of 23.76% [2]