瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term recovery, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 384,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 47,155 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 33,625 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,447 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,523 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,132 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,085 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 315 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,337 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 379 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 373,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 372,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 16,170 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13,660 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 157 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 359,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 363,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 237,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10,630 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [3] - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and other funds and new policy - based financial instruments [3] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, reaching the highest level in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief of the tight supply of tin ore [3] - Smelting end: Most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. Coupled with more year - end maintenance, the output of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for output to recover after the Spring Festival [3] - Import: The export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased [3] - Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen to 1,750 yuan/ton; LME inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has risen [3] Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate that market sentiment has recovered [3]