国投期货化工日报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]