【冠通期货研究报告】尿素周报：印标发布，盘面拉涨-20260209

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].