农产品日报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Beans 1: Beans 1 are in a volatile state. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to risk control. The No. 1 Central Document shows that domestic soybeans will continue to promote the improvement of per - unit yield, and policies will be introduced to ensure the planting area and protect planting profits. Recently, the policy side has continued to auction soybeans, increasing the marginal supply in the market, and the transaction price is relatively strong. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [1]. - Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal: After the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States last week, Trump unilaterally stated on social media that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 1.2 million tons to 2 million tons. US soybeans showed an overall upward trend last week, but domestic soybean meal futures did not follow, with the M2605 contract falling 1.54% weekly. Short - term risks should be noted, and the Dalian soybean meal may continue to oscillate at the bottom. For rapeseed meal, after the preliminary agreement between China and Canada, the export situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively good, the domestic supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the overall demand is weak. Short - term rapeseed meal may also run weakly in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil: The soybean oil and palm oil futures are in a state of position - reduction and oscillation. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to risk control. The RIN price is relatively strong, and the US biomass diesel policy is positive, with strong fundamental drivers, so US soybean oil is strong. It is expected that the pressure on the supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 26/27 season will decrease year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the fact that US soybean oil and US soybeans are likely to oscillate strongly. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the news of the resumption of normal imports of Canadian rapeseed to China and the appearance of China's further procurement of rapeseed shipping schedules, which may suppress prices [3]. - Corn: The overall grain - selling progress in the country has reached 61%. The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable with a weak trend. The ex - warehouse prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port have dropped by 5 yuan/ton compared with the weekend. The pre - holiday fundamentals may not change much. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [5]. - Hogs: Against the background of the continuous decline of hog spot prices, the near - month 03 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the current futures price has basically converged with the spot price. Recently, the slaughter volume has increased significantly, but the spot price has continued to decline. The industry's average slaughter weight is still high, and the secondary fattening has not been fully slaughtered. There is a need to be vigilant about the supply pressure after the Spring Festival. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected that there will still be a low point in hog prices in the first half of next year [6]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs has weakened significantly recently, and most of the increase since New Year's Day has been reversed. The futures premium has been reversed. The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January shows a significant month - on - month improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. There is still upward repair momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches the low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 can be considered [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - The central government promotes the improvement of soybean per - unit yield and area protection, and the policy side auctions soybeans, increasing market supply [1]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and macro - risks and short - term policy and market sentiment [1]. Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal - US soybean purchases are expected to increase, but domestic soybean meal futures did not follow the upward trend of US soybeans, and the M2605 contract fell 1.54% weekly [2]. - Soybean oil mills will be on holiday, and the 2 - month USDA supply - demand report will be released on February 11 [2]. - The export situation of Canadian rapeseed is good, domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, and demand is weak, so rapeseed meal may run weakly [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil futures are in a position - reduction and oscillation state, and risk control is needed before the holiday [3]. - The RIN price is strong, and the US biomass diesel policy is positive, so US soybean oil is strong [3]. - Pay attention to the news of Canadian rapeseed imports and China's procurement schedules for rapeseed oil [3]. Corn - The national grain - selling progress is 61%, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable with a weak trend [5]. - The pre - holiday purchase and sale are dull, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises has increased [5]. - The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and auctions after the Spring Festival [5]. Hogs - The near - month 03 contract premium has been squeezed out, and the futures price has converged with the spot price [6]. - The slaughter volume has increased, but the spot price has declined, and the average slaughter weight is high [6]. - There is supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and hog prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [6]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs has weakened, and the futures premium has been reversed [7]. - The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January has improved month - on - month but declined year - on - year [7]. - There is upward repair momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the Spring Festival [7].