供应增量显现，猪价反弹后下跌：农林牧渔

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][71]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of live pigs is increasing, leading to a rebound in prices followed by a decline. As of February 8, the price of live pigs was 11.84 CNY/kg, down 0.47 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were -38.09 CNY and 91.42 CNY per head, respectively, showing significant week-on-week declines [2][10][30]. - The beef market is experiencing price increases due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg and calves at 33.81 CNY/kg, reflecting a positive trend for beef prices in the long term [3][33]. - The poultry sector is facing downward pressure on prices due to increased output of broilers and a decrease in demand for poultry products, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 0.21 CNY/kg week-on-week [3][40]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The price of live pigs has shown volatility, with a rebound followed by a decline due to increased supply and faster slaughtering rates. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.40 kg, down 0.46 kg week-on-week [2][20][30]. - The industry is entering a seasonal consumption peak, with an increase in slaughtering volume and a decrease in frozen product inventory, which is currently at 17.91%, down 0.40 percentage points week-on-week [2][13][30]. Beef Industry - The beef market is seeing an upward trend in prices, driven by increased demand from slaughterhouses as they prepare for the Spring Festival. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to tightening supply from reduced breeding stock [3][33][34]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in prices due to increased output and reduced demand for poultry products. The price of eggs has also decreased to 7.67 CNY/kg, down 0.78 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery driven by supply constraints [3][40][42]. Seed Industry - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to enhance agricultural productivity and quality. This initiative is likely to benefit leading seed companies [3][55][56].