瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260209

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 9, 2026, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract EC2604 closing down 0.39% and the far - month contracts down between -1% and -1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1657.94, down 134.2 points from last week, a 7.5% week - on - week decline. The cancellation of full - refund VAT for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but the price increase may be reversed later. China's foreign trade improved significantly in December 2025, which may be related to the cancellation of VAT export rebates and pre - holiday rush exports. It is expected that China's exports will maintain a high growth rate in 2026. Shipowners' price hikes from Asia to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean may not meet expectations due to unchanged supply - demand patterns. The resumption of Red Sea Canal passage by Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd has implementation risks. The market is optimistic about the eurozone's economic recovery, supporting the expectation of the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the EC main contract was 1238.00, down 4.8; the closing price of the EC secondary main contract was 1553, down 0.5. The EC2604 - EC2606 spread was -315.00, down 15.20; the EC2604 - EC2608 spread was -376.80, up 5.20. The EC contract basis was 554.14, down 6.80 [1] - Futures Positions: The main contract EC's open interest was 31132, down 295 [1] 3.2 Spot Price Data - Freight Indexes: The SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1657.94, down 134.20; the SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) was 1155.66, up 54.26. The SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1266.56, down 50.19. The CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1122.15, down 53.44; the CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1535.03, down 39.66 [1] - Shipping - related Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1923.00, up 13.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1652.00, up 7.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 0.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 21150.00, up 136.00 [1] - Container Ship Capacity: The container ship capacity was 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged [1] 3.3 Industry News - Geopolitical News: Iran and the US ended nuclear negotiations in Oman, reaching a consensus on continued dialogue. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India reducing tariffs on US products and the US lowering the "counter - tariff" rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18. US President Trump cancelled the additional 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US due to India's import of Russian oil [1] - Domestic Policy: The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, aiming to use funds and new policy - based financial instruments in key areas and promote major projects [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - On February 10, 2026, key data to watch include the US January New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation at 00:00, the French fourth - quarter ILO unemployment rate at 14:30, and multiple US economic data at 21:30 (December retail sales month - on - month rate, fourth - quarter labor cost index quarter - on - quarter rate, December import price index month - on - month rate) [1]