瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of the precious metals market may decline. The US employment and inflation data this week will be the core variables. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, gold and silver may have a chance to make up for lost ground [2]. - In the medium to long term, the actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. As market sentiment calms down, the precious metals market may return to the pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds [2]. - The support range for London gold is $4,700 - $4,800 per ounce, and the resistance range is $5,200 - $5,300 per ounce. The support range for London silver is $65 - $70 per ounce, and the resistance range is $90 - $95 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,125.94 yuan per gram, up 35.8 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 20,873 yuan per kilogram, up 2,074 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 158,759 lots, down 5,081 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 9,210 lots, down 38 lots [2]. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 331,307 lots, down 163,435 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,015,255 lots, down 276,289 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 104,052 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 318,546 kilograms, down 31,354 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,116.02 yuan, up 22.17 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19,595 yuan, up 2,485 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.92 yuan per gram, down 13.65 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 1,278 yuan per gram, up 411 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,076.23 tons, down 1.72 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 16,191.09 tons, down 56.36 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 165,604 contracts, down 39,792 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 25,877 contracts, up 2,174 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, down 0.35; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88, down 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.76, down 4.01; the CBOE gold volatility index is 33.96, down 1.57 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 66.03, down 0.00; the gold - silver ratio is 4.44, up [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached 57.3, the highest level in six months. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2]. - China's central bank's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, the gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that buy goods and services from sanctioned Iran, which took effect on February 7 [2]. - The US announced a temporary trade agreement framework reached with India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, various foods and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2]. - The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing the dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that this round of consultations was a "good start" [2]. - Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth is expected to help inflation fall back to the central bank's 2% target [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - February 10, 21:30, US January retail sales data [2]. - February 11, 21:30, US January non - farm payrolls data [2]. - February 13, 21:30, US January CPI data [2].