瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating bearish" for the RB2605 contract [2] Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract decreased in price with increasing positions. Macroscopically, 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature in the central bank's open - market this week. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, the capacity utilization rate was 42.02% with an output of 1.9168 million tons, the apparent demand dropped to 1.47 million tons, and the inventory continued to rise. Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, there are more blast - furnace overhauls in steel mills while the demand continues to shrink, so the futures price oscillates weakly [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the position volume was 2,005,501 lots, an increase of 90,248 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 6,490 lots, an increase of 24,227 lots. The spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 46 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 31,310 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,250 yuan/ton with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,333 yuan/ton with no change. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420 yuan/ton with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 186 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 30 yuan/ton with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 763 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,540 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton with no change. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton with no change. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.3697 million tons, an increase of 1.1845 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 448,200 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.9257 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.5609 million tons, a decrease of 26,600 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.55%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.71%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.9168 million tons, a decrease of 81,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 42.02%, a decrease of 1.78 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.5365 million tons, an increase of 45,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.6592 million tons, an increase of 395,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 54.17%, a decrease of 14.58 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 13.75 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, a decrease of 38.24 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 53.13 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, a decrease of 8.75 million square meters [2] Industry News - The new - issue Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the financial data in January 2026 may have a "good start", but the overall level is weaker than the same period in 2025. The median forecast of market institutions for new RMB loans in January is 4.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 430 billion yuan. The median forecast for new social financing in January is 7.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight increase of 50 billion yuan [2] - On February 5, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar this period was 1.9168 million tons, a decrease of 81,500 tons compared with the previous period; the mill inventory was 1.5365 million tons, an increase of 45,200 tons; the social inventory was 3.6592 million tons, an increase of 395,200 tons; the total inventory was 5.1957 million tons, an increase of 440,400 tons; the apparent demand was 1.4764 million tons, a decrease of 287,600 tons [2]