瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with seasonal accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand, with high industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 3,110 US dollars/ton, up 84 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan [2] - Spreads and Positions: The spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 165 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of alumina was - 108 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum were 197,639 lots, down 1,843 lots; the main contract positions of alumina were 333,870 lots, down 7,930 lots; the main contract positions of cast aluminum alloy were 13,808 lots, up 9,803 lots [2] - Inventories: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 50,325 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 490,975 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 245,140 tons, up 28,369 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 74,425 tons, up 357 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 164,512 tons, up 8,979 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE registered warrants were 68,535 tons, up 1,452 tons [2] - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 43,884 lots, up 7,560 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57, down 0.14 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,650 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum was 23,110 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,485 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 22.32 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 313 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84%, down 1%; the alumina开工率 was 82.49%, down 1% [2] - Demand and Supply Balance: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was - 100 million tons, down 100 million tons [2] - Prices and Trade: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export volume of alumina was 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The production of primary aluminum imports was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the production of primary aluminum exports was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, up 4 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.79%, up 0.48% [2] - Output of Related Products: The output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 million tons, up 1.60 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] - Export Volume: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, down 3 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile Production: Automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - Real Estate Index: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 38.70%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 31.44%, up 0.07% [2] - Implied Volatility and Ratio: The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 20.39%, up 0.0030; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.78, up 0.0016 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth could help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [2] - The State Council Executive Meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policies and measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and new policy - based financial instruments [2] - China's social logistics cost has been steadily decreasing for many years, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP in 2025 dropped to 13.9%, the lowest level since statistics began [2] - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest level in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2] - China will build a "1 + N" policy system to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and introduce support policies for more than 10 specific fields [2]