纯碱周报：厂家库存高位上升，震荡偏弱-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with demand slowing down. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is rising at a high level, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future, with the 05 contract facing pressure at the 1220 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash production start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with pre - holiday active shipments by enterprises and slowing demand. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). The backlog of orders from soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of over 2 days. In the future, the start - up of domestic soda ash is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be stable. The supply of soda ash is expected to be generally stable, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the industry. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level, and new capacity release will put pressure on the market [2]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The soda ash market in East China was stable last week, with prices slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - As of February 5, the domestic soda ash production was 77.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88 million tons (1.12% decline). Among them, the production of light soda ash was 36.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41.40 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the combined soda process in China was - 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.43%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 88.80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic glass: As of February 5, the in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 86,960 tons per day, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 8.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 66.12%, the same as the previous week. The inventory of the downstream component market has been significantly reduced, and the component quotation is expected to be stable in the future. - Float glass: As of February 5, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.86%, the same as the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points. The production this week is expected to be stable compared with last week [11]. 4. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of February 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 158.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.69 million tons (2.39% increase). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 83.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 74.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 million tons [13]. 5. Position Analysis - As of February 6, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 835,010, an increase of 7,951, and the short positions were 1,004,525, an increase of 3,468. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].