PVC周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market has policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival, but the PVC market is currently affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and the disk fluctuates greatly, so cautious operation is required [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Affected by devices such as Shandong Hengtong and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26% week - on - week, continuing a slight increase and at a neutral level in recent years. There are no expected new maintenance devices this week, so the PVC operating rate is expected to change little [4][18] 3.2 Demand - Near the Spring Festival, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.33 percentage points week - on - week, and the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low. The real estate is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. As of the week of February 8, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 18.54% week - on - week and is still at a low level in the same period in recent years [4][24] 3.3 Export - After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased week - on - week, but the previous export rush reduced the enterprise sales pressure [4] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of February 5, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week to 1.227 billion tons, 63.28% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level [25] 3.5 Basis - The current 05 basis of PVC is - 211 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [13]