宏观点评：待结汇资金超万亿，对人民币影响几何？-20260209

Summary of Key Points Macroeconomic Overview - The accumulated waiting for settlement funds since 2022 is approximately $1.13 trillion, with a weighted average holding cost around 7.09, predominantly between 7.0-7.2[2][4]. - The current context of RMB appreciation, combined with increased attractiveness of RMB assets, may lead to continued corporate settlement[2][6]. Historical Context - Since the exit of the "mandatory settlement" policy in 2012, waiting for settlement funds have transitioned from "held by the state" to "held by individuals," influenced by interest rate differentials and exchange rate expectations[3][4]. - The trade settlement rate has decreased from around 60% to approximately 50% as the China-US interest rate differential narrowed and even inverted since 2022[3][4]. Future Outlook - The expected USD to RMB exchange rate center is likely to be between 6.8-7.1 by 2026, indicating a stable upward trend but challenging to maintain a one-sided appreciation[2][7]. - Corporate settlements will likely lead to a reduction in excess reserves, marginally tightening liquidity, but the current impact is limited[8][9]. Liquidity and Credit Expansion - The conversion of foreign exchange assets to RMB deposits during corporate settlements will reduce excess reserves, impacting liquidity marginally[8][9]. - Increased corporate settlements may disrupt credit expansion as firms shift from holding foreign currency to meeting cash flow needs, potentially lowering financing demands[10].