银河期货农产品日报-20260209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that due to the low cold - storage inventory and poor quality of apples this year, the pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm has increased recently, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated. The apple warehouse receipt cost is relatively high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. Considering the low cold - storage inventory, increased downstream stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.99, up 0.06 from the previous trading day [2]. - Futures Prices: AP01 is 8163, up 45 from the previous close; AP05 is 9517, down 18; AP10 is 8237, up 20. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 63, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 38, and AP10 - AP01 decreased by 25 [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 163, down 45 from the previous trading day; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 1517, up 18; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 237.0, down 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - Apple Market News - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons from the previous week, with an accelerating inventory removal speed and higher than the same period last year [7]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7]. - In the production areas, the inventory removal continued to accelerate, mainly for packaging and shipping. The transactions of fruit farmers' goods were mainly concentrated on the two - pole sources, and the overall trading volume was limited. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of trucks was relatively dense, but the sales did not improve significantly, and there was a backlog of goods in the transfer warehouses and on the ground vehicles [7]. - In the Shandong production area, the packaging and shipping were okay, and the transactions of fruit farmers' goods were concentrated on third - grade and small fruits. In the Yichuan and Weihai sub - production areas, the trading atmosphere improved slightly. In the Yan'an production area, the transactions of fruit farmers' goods improved slightly. In the Weinan and Xianyang production areas, the transactions improved, and some large fruit enterprises adjusted the goods of merchants to supplement the sources [7]. - Trading Logic: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor quality, increased pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5]. - Trading Strategy - For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies [8]. - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8]. - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][12] [13][14][16][18][19][20][21][23]