金货期业弘：节前市场谨慎，铝价延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday market is cautious, and the aluminum price continues to fluctuate. After a sharp decline in the short - term aluminum price, the spot market sentiment has warmed. The future trend of the aluminum price will follow the prices of gold, silver, and copper, and may continue the oscillating trend. If the copper price continues to fall, it may drive the aluminum price to weaken, and the risk during the Spring Festival is relatively high. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Geopolitical events such as limited progress in US - Iran negotiations, US tariff hikes on countries trading with Iran, and the victory of Sanae Takaichi in Japan's election have led to sharp fluctuations in market sentiment. The US dollar has fallen continuously, the RMB has reached a new high, and the capital market has fully recovered. Gold and silver have risen sharply today, driving all non - ferrous metals to rise, including copper, tin, and nickel, as well as Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum. [3] Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - Today, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum is reported at 23,540, and the spot price is 23,400. The spot price is at a premium of - 140 points compared to the futures price. This week, Shanghai aluminum first rose and then fell, and the spot discount has narrowed slightly to - 200 yuan. After the sharp decline last week, the spot trading improved. [3] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly, the alumina inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased significantly. The pre - holiday spot demand is poor. The LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME spot discount is - 22 US dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand. [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices has dropped to 7.61, with the internal and external markets showing generally the same trend. [3] Technical Analysis - Technically, today, US natural gas and US crude oil have continued to decline significantly, and LME aluminum has fallen, trading around 3,092 US dollars. Shanghai aluminum has risen today, closing at 23,540, with a technical form close to neutral. The trading volume of Shanghai aluminum has decreased while the open interest has increased, and the market sentiment is slightly bullish. [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | LME Aluminum - Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | February 3 | 6.9350 | - 220 | - 22 | 7.52 | | February 4 | 6.9411 | - 200 | - 23 | 7.65 | | February 5 | 6.9410 | - 170 | - 28 | 7.79 | | February 6 | 6.9298 | - 150 | - 26 | 7.70 | | February 9 | 6.9255 | - 200 | - 22 | 7.61 | [5]