华宝期货有色金属周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has eased to some extent, with a strong linkage between precious metals and the non - ferrous sector. The market trading sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [13]. - Non - ferrous metal fluctuations have caused zinc prices to fall from their highs. Medium - to long - term supply increases still exert upward pressure, but it will take time to materialize. Prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [16]. - Tin price fluctuations have increased, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term [17]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate market will maintain a high - volatility pattern of bottom - hunting before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - The closing prices of the main futures contracts and spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel all declined from January 30th to February 6th, 2026. The weekly decline rates of futures contracts were - 3.45%, - 5.07%, - 5.36%, - 12.71%, and - 5.83% respectively, and the weekly decline rates of spot prices were - 3.93%, - 6.21%, - 5.62%, - 17.06%, and - 6.58% respectively [9]. 3.2 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, Shanghai aluminum prices corrected from their highs. The US threat to impose tariffs on countries involved in Iranian trade will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite. Domestically, the central bank conducted reverse repurchases to supplement liquidity, alleviating the panic in the domestic commodity market. In terms of fundamentals, domestic electrolytic aluminum production in January increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was stable but with significant sectoral differentiation. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has been accumulating, reaching 857,000 tons as of February 9th [13]. - Viewpoint: Short - term price range consolidation [13]. - Later Concerns: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply expansion, and consumption release [14]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fell from their highs. The domestic zinc concentrate market has weak supply and demand, and the processing fee remains low. The import zinc concentrate market has few transactions. The start - up rate of the galvanizing industry decreased due to the Spring Festival holiday [16]. - Viewpoint: Zinc prices fell from their highs due to non - ferrous metal fluctuations. Medium - to long - term supply increases still exert upward pressure, but it will take time to materialize. Short - term price range consolidation [16]. - Later Concerns: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [16]. Tin - Logic: In December 2025, China's imported tin concentrate increased. Recent tin prices have fluctuated greatly, being affected by funds and sentiment. Domestic smelter start - up rates are okay, but there is limited room for further increase due to raw material shortages. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and downstream restocking willingness is weak [17]. - Viewpoint: Avoid participation in the short term due to increased fluctuations [17]. - Later Concerns: Myanmar's resumption of production and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Logic: There is a game between weak reality and falling costs. The main contract of lithium carbonate fell by 10.31% week - on - week last week. Supply decreased, demand was differentiated, inventory was structurally differentiated, and costs declined [18]. - Viewpoint: The market will maintain a high - volatility pattern of bottom - hunting before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [18]. - Later Concerns: Policy implementation effects, marginal changes in supply and demand, inventory evolution trends, macro and regulatory risks, and cost and profit transmission [18]. 3.3 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The prices of domestic high - grade, low - grade, and imported bauxite all decreased. The port arrival volume decreased, and the departure volume also decreased [23][26]. - Alumina: The domestic price remained unchanged, the full cost decreased, and the profit increased [29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost increased, and the regional price difference decreased. The start - up rates of downstream processing sectors showed different trends. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and exchanges also changed [31][35][43][44]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of different periods showed different changes [49]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spreads of different periods changed [54]. Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the imported processing fee decreased. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss increased, and the imported zinc concentrate inventory remained unchanged [60][63]. - Refined Zinc: The social inventory, bonded area inventory, and inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the LME inventory decreased [67]. - Galvanizing: The production decreased, the start - up rate decreased, the raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory increased [71]. - Basis and Inter - month Spread: The basis and inter - month spreads of different periods changed [75][79]. Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces decreased, and the start - up rate decreased [86]. - Tin Ingot Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and the social inventory in different regions decreased [90]. - Tin Concentrate Processing Fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged [93]. - Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss level increased [94]. - Spot Price: The prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased [100]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Trading Volume: The main contract closing price decreased, the trading volume increased, the position decreased, and the basis decreased. The prices of various lithium - related products in the industrial chain decreased [103]. - Supply: The total weekly start - up rate and output decreased, except for the output of lithium carbonate produced from lithium mica, which increased [104][108]. - Demand: The production and inventory of cathode materials and terminal products showed different trends [116][119]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, the sample inventory decreased, and the inventory days of different links changed [123]. - Cost and Profit: The prices of raw materials such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased [126].