山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals oscillated and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 3.88%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 8.90%, the main contract of platinum closed up 10.58%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 7.59% [1] - In the short - term, geopolitical risks have increased, the new Fed chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak and inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is still far off [1] - Japan's high - market early - rate ruling coalition won an absolute majority of seats, and tax reform and military expansion may be on the way, leading to an increase in regional tensions [1] - Fed's Daly pointed out that the labor market is vulnerable and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The US added 22,000 ADP jobs in January, lower than the market expectation of 48,000. Trump nominated former Fed governor Warsh to replace Powell, triggering hawkish expectations. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, and the next cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined under pressure [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Attention should be paid to the risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index oscillated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate widely and be generally strong in the short term, oscillate and build a bottom in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4,988.60 per ounce, up 3.97% from the previous day; London gold was at $4,948.00 per ounce, up 2.08%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1,125.94 yuan per gram, up 3.29%; gold T + D closed at 1,118.84 yuan per gram, up 2.51% [2] - Other data: Comex gold positions decreased by 22.41% compared with the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions decreased by 11.01%; gold TD positions increased by 4.23%. LBMA gold inventory increased by 0.57%, Comex gold inventory decreased by 0.72%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 0.99% [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $77.53 per ounce, up 10.20% from the previous day; London silver was at $74.94 per ounce, down 4.79%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 20,873 yuan per kilogram, up 11.03%; silver T + D closed at 19,503 yuan per kilogram, up 7.18% [4] - Other data: Comex silver positions decreased by 8.59% compared with the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions decreased by 11.94%; silver TD positions increased by 0.97%. LBMA silver inventory increased by 2.00%, Comex silver inventory decreased by 2.80%, and Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 31.14% [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,097.40 per ounce, up 6.41% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2,054.00 per ounce, up 1.48%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 545.05 yuan per gram, up 7.72%; platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 543.99 yuan per gram, up 3.03% [7] - Other data: NYMEX platinum active contract positions decreased by 5.53% compared with the previous week; NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 1.33% [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8] - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,712.00 per ounce, up 4.33% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1,693.00 per ounce, down 7.56%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.15 yuan per gram, up 6.74% [9] - Other data: NYMEX palladium active contract positions decreased by 14.87% compared with the previous week; NYMEX palladium inventory decreased by 14.80% [9] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $6,656.947 billion [10] - US economic data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.40%, annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.40%, the unemployment rate is 4.40%, and other data are also provided [10][12] - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves are 2,307.57 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [12] - IMF foreign exchange reserve ratio: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided [15]