招期基本金属铝产业链：氧化铝：现货价格止跌企稳，供应收缩提供上行潜力，电解铝：宏观扰动犹存，价格维持震荡整理铸造铝合金：成本走弱叠加供需收缩，价格维持震荡运行 (2026年02月02日-2026年02月08日)

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Alumina - The overall price of alumina is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The marginal contraction of the short - term supply side provides upward potential for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Due to strong uncertainties in the current macro - environment and the supply - demand dual - weak characteristics of the fundamentals, the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - With the cost weakening and the simultaneous contraction of supply and demand, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [108]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The probability of a rate cut in March is 21.7% (13.4% last week). The US dollar index is 97.96, the US PMI is 52.60, and the US 10 - 2 - year spread is 0.74%. The domestic manufacturing PMI is 49.30 [4][10][13]. 3.2 Alumina Futures - Last week, the main alumina contract 2605 closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price last week was 2,610.4 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The overseas alumina market price in US dollars was 311 US dollars/ton, and the import window of the Chinese alumina market is currently closed [16]. Supply - Alumina plants' production cuts and overhauls are increasing, and the operating capacity continues to decline. As of last Friday, the installed capacity was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons (down 800,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 82.3% [16]. Demand - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [16]. Valuation - The average full cost of alumina decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was - 234 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 166 yuan/ton. The weekly trading volume increased, while the open interest decreased [16]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the alumina inventory was 5.621 million tons and continued to accumulate [16]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Futures - Last week, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,015 US dollars/ton, down 121 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 23,315 yuan/ton, down 1,245 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. Macro - Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in January exceeded expectations and returned above the boom - bust line; the ADP employment data was unexpectedly lower than expected; the conflict between the US and Iran eased; the US stock earnings reports increased market concerns about AI capital expenditure. Domestically, relevant departments have introduced consumption - promotion and credit - related policies [59]. Spot - Last week, the average spot price in East China was 23,442 yuan/ton, down 3.56% from the previous week; in South China, it was 23,448 yuan/ton, down 3.55% from the previous week; in Central China, it was 23,336 yuan/ton, down 3.54% from the previous week [59]. Supply - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [59]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of aluminum products was 57.9% (down 1.5% from the previous week) [59]. Valuation - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased last week, and the average profit decreased. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 340 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [59]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 836,000 tons and continued to accumulate [59]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures - Last week, the main ADC12 contract 2603 closed at 21,950 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Scrap Aluminum - Last week, the average price of crushed primary aluminum was 19,150 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the average price of crushed secondary aluminum was 19,650 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Spot - Last week, the average price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of ADC12 last week was - 37 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.3% (down 0.6% from the previous week) [108]. Demand - Downstream die - casting enterprises generally replenish inventory based on rigid demand, and the actual demand is generally weak [108]. Valuation - The average cost of ADC12 decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was 1,045 yuan/ton, the 0 - 3 month spread was 875 yuan/ton, and the AD - AL spread was - 140 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [108]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the ADC12 inventory was 45,900 tons, with a slight inventory reduction [108].