中期原料成本抬升及缺口担忧仍存

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - Trading Strategies: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - Low Refinery Inventory: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - Increased Social Inventory: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - Industrial Chain Data: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].