流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：供给高峰平稳落地，关注超长地方债品种利差压缩机会

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the stable landing of the supply peak for local government bonds, highlighting opportunities for interest rate spread compression in ultra-long local bonds [1] - It notes that the central bank has provided substantial medium-term liquidity support ahead of the Spring Festival, resulting in a very loose funding environment [5] - The report anticipates a total issuance of local government bonds of 9,018 billion yuan before the Spring Festival, exceeding the actual issuance in January [14] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity Insights - The central bank has injected a cumulative net amount of 1.2 trillion yuan in medium to long-term funds since the beginning of the year, ensuring a stable funding environment during the holiday [8] - The net payment of government bonds has risen to 643.7 billion yuan, with the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit increasing to 971.9 billion yuan [5] - The report indicates that the interest rates for interbank certificates of deposit continue to operate at low levels due to refinancing advantages [8] Group 2: Local Government Bond Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds is expected to reach 17,652 billion yuan by February 15, with ultra-long bonds accounting for 53% of this issuance [14] - The report highlights a significant increase in the supply of replacement bonds, with 5,899 billion yuan issued compared to 3,781 billion yuan in the same period last year [14] - The interest rate spreads between ultra-long local bonds (20Y, 30Y) and government bonds have widened, but are expected to compress as supply concerns diminish [14][42] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Funds have made small net purchases of ultra-long local bonds, while insurance companies have significantly increased their holdings during concentrated listings [15] - The report notes that small and medium-sized banks have continued to net buy a considerable amount of 7-10Y and 15-20Y bonds in February [15] - The implied tax rates for various maturities are reported to be around 4.5% for 10Y, 4.3% for 15Y, 5% for 20Y, and 4.3% for 30Y, indicating a favorable position for taxable bonds [15]