格林大华期货早盘提示-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The period 2025 - 2026 marks the end of "American exceptionalism" and the start of "global rebalancing," with international stocks, Chinese consumer stocks, and emerging - market commodity producers as potential winners [1] - US stocks face ongoing selling pressure, and market volatility is likely to increase due to factors such as CTA strategy reduction, liquidity depletion, and negative gamma effects [1] - The world is on the verge of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility, and investors should note capital control risks [2] - The Fed's policy uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3] - The Fed's monetary policy is about to make a major shift, creating a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity - related assets [3] - The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 due to consecutive wrong US policies [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Financial Market - High - profile figures' warnings: - BofA's chief investment strategist believes the new cycle will see non - US assets as winners [1] - Bridgewater's founder warns of a "capital war" and capital control risks in the US [2] - Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing selling pressure on US stocks, with potential sell - offs of about $33 billion if the market weakens and $8.7 billion if it rises [1] - Policy and geopolitical impacts: - The expected policy of Fed nominee Wash will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - US geopolitical actions bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - Market trends and asset performance: - In early February, US momentum stocks suffered a major sell - off, and investors shifted to value and traditional defensive stocks [2] - Nasdaq futures' rebound after breaking through the half - year line is a technical pullback, and a new round of tech - stock selling may occur [3] - The decline of US stocks may negatively impact US consumption [3] - The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 [3] Other News - SpaceX is recruiting engineers to develop AI satellites and space data centers, and Musk mentioned a large - scale return to the moon [1] - Japan's political situation leads to expectations of fiscal stimulus, pushing up stock index futures and weakening the yen and Japanese bonds [1] - Base metals are expected to rebound before gold in the second quarter [1]