综合晨报：美国哈赛特表态就业数据将下降-20260210

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The labor market's downward pressure is increasing, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [2][16] - The US stock market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market has upward momentum but also faces adjustment pressure [20][22] - Most commodities show different trends, with some in a weak or strong oscillation state, and the prices of some are affected by supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical factors [25][34][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, benefiting from the sharp decline of the US dollar index and the existence of certain risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of a March interest - rate cut is about 20%. It is expected that the overall trend of precious metals will be oscillatory before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to reduce positions [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset stated that employment data will decline, and the downward pressure on the labor market is increasing. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [14][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Google plans to raise about $20 billion through issuing US dollar bonds. The short - term situation of the US stock market is a mix of long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has upward momentum, but the probability of an interest - rate cut in the short term is low. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the upward momentum weakens [21][22][23] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continue the weak oscillation pattern. Before the Spring Festival, the fundamental pressure increases, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to risks with a light position before the festival [25][26] 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at Beigang is relatively stable. The Indonesian policy has some impact, but the coal price is seasonally strong, with the policy mainly strengthening the bottom and the upward elasticity being limited [27][28][29] 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices are still weak and oscillatory. The iron - making process is moderately resuming production, and it is necessary to wait for the order situation in March after the Spring Festival [30] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory has increased. Before the release of the MPOB report, the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of MPOB data and control positions to avoid risks [31] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 264,000 tons of soybeans to China. The CBOT soybeans are oscillating strongly, but the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has reached a record high for the same period. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation, and the soybean meal will be weaker than the external market [32][33][34] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving in reality, but the futures market is greatly affected by macro - sentiment and capital flow. After the Spring Festival, it is expected that the supply and demand will both increase, and the price center may rise significantly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The macro - negative sentiment is gradually digested by the market, but the short - term fundamentals limit the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is oscillating, and the decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [44][45] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc market is oscillating. The zinc ore production expectation may change. Before the Spring Festival, the operation difficulty is high. It is recommended to use call options instead for unilateral operations and wait and see for arbitrage [47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The semiconductor industry's revenue is expected to reach $1 trillion in 2026. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but there are still uncertainties. The demand is weak. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely [49][51][52] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Venezuela's oil production has rebounded. The oil price is oscillating upward, and the risk premium is expected to support the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up negotiations between the US and Iran [53][54] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran, the LPG price is expected to oscillate strongly [55][56] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The demand has basically stagnated. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the geopolitical situation [56][57] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The supply of urea is relatively abundant, and the demand fluctuation is not obvious. Before and after the Spring Festival, the urea price may oscillate and adjust. It is not recommended to continue to allocate more at the current price [59][60] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports has increased. The styrene market is entering the supply elasticity test stage. The current bullish trading of the styrene futures has temporarily ended. It is recommended to reduce the risk exposure before the festival [61][62] 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Affected by the Spring Festival and geopolitical factors, the container freight rate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [63][64]