Report Overview - The report is a daily agricultural product report from Wukuang Futures, covering multiple agricultural products including sugar, cotton, protein meal, oils and fats, eggs, and pigs [1][2] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,261 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton or 0.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,280 - 5,380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of the first half of January in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week [3] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in oversupply in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production had reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [3] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year [3] - In December 2025, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar. The cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The sugar sales volume in December was 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales volume in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3] Strategy - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [6] - From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons [6][7] - The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [7] - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7] Strategy - In the short term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, Zheng cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, the planting area in the new year is reduced, and with the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,729 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,238 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day [10] - Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons [11] - StoneX's latest forecast shows that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons [11] - As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year and an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year and a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the five - year average [11] - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week [11] Strategy - The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans has pushed up the price of US soybeans. For China, on the one hand, the long - term supply pressure will increase, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost will increase. It is expected that the protein meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12] Oils and Fats Market Information - On Monday, the oils and fats futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,144 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,014 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,137 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day [14] - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month. The inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month [15] - The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was welcomed by the market. A public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that the palm oil export volume in Malaysia in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month [17] - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory increased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.92 million tons [17] Strategy - Driven by the biofuel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The price of oils and fats is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [18] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, most of the national egg prices were stable, and a few decreased. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.38 yuan/jin. The price in Xinji decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.73 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao remained at 2.89 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan decreased by 0.08 yuan to 3.15 yuan/jin. The supply of goods was sufficient, and the market demand weakened. It is expected that today's national egg prices may be stable or decline [20] Strategy - The market is in the inventory - accumulation period around the Spring Festival. Under weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall and difficult to rise, which has a downward impact on the futures market. Considering that the inventory has accumulated rapidly before the festival and the spot price has dropped significantly, the near - month contract may still have a premium to be squeezed out. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy. In the long - term, after the spot price turns around, the logic of production capacity reduction will be re - traded, but the implementation path is still uncertain under low cost and high premium. Attention should still be paid to the pressure after the price rises [21] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.05 yuan to 12.09 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.25 yuan to 10.89 yuan/kg. The price - holding mentality of farmers in most areas has become stronger. It is expected that today's pig price will be mainly stable, with slight fluctuations in individual areas [23] Strategy - The large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. Considering the current weight - reduction intention of large - scale farms and the relatively high number of pigs in small - scale farms, the near - term price may still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies. In the long - term, although the decline in production capacity has been revised down, the high fat - to - standard pig price difference, seasonal support, and the expectation of consumption demand recovery still exist. Attention should be paid to the support level after the price drops [24]
2026-02-10：五矿期货农产品早报-20260210
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-10 00:40