橡胶：引发商品大涨的原因仍会持续吗？

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The macro - factors that triggered the sharp rise in commodities are likely to continue in the next stage. Rubber, which has not experienced a significant increase for many years, is an elastic variety for long - position trading. However, in the first and second quarters, rubber prices are still more likely to fall than rise, and a hedging arbitrage of buying NR and selling RU may be relatively stable. After the third quarter, if there are supply disruptions and positive demand expectations, long positions can be considered [1][35][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Actions and Global Reactions - US Actions on Canada and Greenland - Canada: The US made controversial remarks and threats on issues such as sovereignty, aircraft licensing, and trade agreements. Canada responded by selling US Treasury bonds, with the Bank of Canada selling $56.7 billion in October 2025, and some institutions reducing their US dollar and US Treasury bond holdings [5][6]. - Greenland: The US repeatedly expressed its desire to obtain Greenland, and the Trump administration continued to pressure Denmark and Greenland through negotiation or coercion, and strengthened military deployment in the Arctic [7][8]. - NATO Reactions: Western European and Nordic countries gradually reduced their US Treasury bond holdings from August 2025 to February 2026, which led to fluctuations in the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield and the US dollar index [9][10][14]. - US Actions in South America - Venezuela: The US imposed a full - scale economic blockade and sent special forces to control President Maduro. This increased market concerns about supply disruptions and raised the willingness to allocate key South American commodities such as copper, lithium, silver, and oil [21]. - Cuba: The US re - listed Cuba as a "state sponsor of terrorism", strengthened economic sanctions and military deterrence [22][23]. - Other South American Countries: The US had various actions and demands on countries like Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Peru, and announced the "America Prosperity Partnership" plan to strengthen economic ties and counter China's influence [24][25]. - US Actions on Iran - The US made threats against Iran, deployed military forces in the Middle East, and exposed three types of combat options against Iran, which pushed up the market's expectation of rising crude oil prices [29][30]. 3.2 Key Mineral Reserves - US: In February 2026, the US announced the "Project Vault", a national - level strategic reserve project for key minerals with a total scale of $12 billion, aiming to ensure the supply of key minerals for strategic industries [31]. - China: China is considering including copper concentrates in the national reserve, expanding the strategic reserve of refined copper, and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism to build a dual - drive copper resource security system [31]. - Rubber: As an important strategic material, rubber is officially reserved in the US and the EU. China is the world's largest consumer of natural rubber, about 80% of which is imported, and the market expectation of rubber reserve is rising [32][34]. 3.3 Rubber Fundamentals - ANRPC Countries: In December 2025, the rubber production of ANRPC countries was 1,127,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.46% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. Exports were 889,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.96% and a month - on - month increase of 8.76%. Consumption was 956,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [37][39][40]. - Non - ANRPC Countries: The natural rubber exports of Cote d'Ivoire in 2025 increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and Laos' exports to China increased by 52.06% year - on - year. The annual marginal increase in non - ANRPC supply was about 310,000 tons. The global rubber supply increased by 130,000 tons, with an annual supply of 1,473 million tons, a growth of 0.89%, showing a balanced supply - demand situation [41]. 3.4 Outlook on Rubber Prices - In the first and second quarters, rubber prices are more likely to fall than rise, and a hedging arbitrage of buying NR and selling RU may be relatively stable. - After the third quarter, with the seasonal rise in rubber prices, long positions can be considered if there are supply disruptions and positive demand expectations [44].