卫星遥感监测报告及南美天气分析

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]