有色金属日报-20260210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall sentiment in the market is relatively warm in the short - term. The prices of some metals are expected to show different trends, such as copper and aluminum may rise, while others like lead and zinc have complex influencing factors and their future trends need further observation. [5][7] - For different metals, specific strategies are proposed, including reference price ranges and trading suggestions like waiting and seeing or taking long - position at low prices. [5][7][12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Category Copper - Market Data: The LME copper 3M closed up 0.96% to $13,185/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,025 to 184,300 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly. The Shanghai spot copper had a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures, while the Guangdong spot had a discount of 105 yuan/ton. The spot import loss was about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,090 yuan/ton. [3][4] - Strategy: Due to factors such as a strong US stock market, plans for key mineral reserves, and a better - than - expected US consumer confidence index, the short - term sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is slightly hawkish, the interest - rate cut trend remains. The copper mine supply is tight, but the domestic refined copper supply is growing strongly. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,400/ton. [5] Aluminum - Market Data: The LME aluminum closed up 0.64% to $3,130/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 16,000 to 667,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,000 to 165,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the aluminum rod processing fee declined. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 489,000 tons. [6] - Strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak in the off - season. However, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium is high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. With the stabilization of the US stock market and precious metals, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,300 - 23,900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,160/ton. [7] Lead - Market Data: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.29% to 16,602 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose by 9.5 to $1,958.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,425 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was at par. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 49,900 tons on February 9th compared to February 5th. [8] - Strategy: The lead ore's visible inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory is rising. The smelter's operating rate has seasonally declined. The lead ingot social inventory is accumulating, and the domestic industrial situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the downstream battery enterprises' restocking willingness after the Spring Festival. [9] Zinc - Market Data: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.34% to 24,567 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose by 76 to $3,361.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,660 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 9,800 tons to 128,100 tons on February 9th compared to February 5th. [10] - Strategy: The zinc ore's visible inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprises' operating performance is average. The finished - product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises has risen rapidly. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [11] Tin - Market Data: On February 9th, the tin price slightly decreased, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 384,180 yuan/ton, down 7.61%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to factors such as high - level but stagnant smelter operating rates in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi due to scrap tin shortages. The demand has not shown strong improvement, and the downstream pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious. [12] - Strategy: The short - term precious metal price has shown signs of stabilization, and the tin price may rebound. Although the tin price has a long - term upward trend, in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise under the background of a marginal relaxation in supply - demand and a steady increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract reference range of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin reference range of $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [12] Nickel - Market Data: On February 9th, the nickel price slightly declined, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 134,463 yuan/ton, down 2.03%. The spot market's brand premiums and discounts were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The nickel - iron price fluctuated upward. [13] - Strategy: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term demand for rebound, but the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with the Shanghai nickel price reference range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range of $16,000 - 18,000/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,322 yuan, up 3.21%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 134,200 - 139,200 yuan, with an average increase of 4,200 yuan (3.17%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was up 3.47%. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,000 yuan, up 3.07%. [16] - Strategy: The market's pessimistic sentiment has eased. If the resumption of a major mine in Jiangxi fails to materialize, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will remain tight after the Spring Festival, and the inventory will continue to decline. The downstream has basically completed pre - holiday restocking. The futures position of lithium carbonate has reached a six - month low, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton. [17] Alumina - Market Data: On February 9th, the alumina index rose 1.62% to 2,869 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 75 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 24,600 tons to 242,600 tons. The ore prices in Guinea and Australia remained stable. [19] - Strategy: Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation in the short - term, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see, and the future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disruption will materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [20] Stainless Steel - Market Data: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,735 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.48%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were also stable. The futures inventory increased, and the social inventory increased to 914,200 tons, with the 300 - series inventory up 2.49%. [22] - Strategy: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, the agents' sales rhythm has slowed down due to the steel mill's price - limit policy. The demand is restricted by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, and the market's purchasing willingness is weak. The steel mills will collectively cut production in February, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long at low prices, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton. [23] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Data: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded, and the main AD2604 contract closed slightly up 0.54% to 22,165 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest and trading volume remained high, and the warehouse receipts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the import price was stable. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy inventory decreased. [25] - Strategy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased. Although the demand is average, the price is strongly supported in the short - term due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness in raw material supply. [26]