钢材,铁矿石,锰硅硅铁：黑色建材日报 2026-02-10-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current black series is in a bottom - game stage with intertwined long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly operate in a weak range - bound oscillation, and the trend opportunity is not clear. It is necessary to focus on inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and whether there are marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" related policies [2]. - In the medium - and long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity bulls, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][14]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Market Information: On February 9, the main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 761.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00), and the position changed to 513,400 hands. The weighted position was 874,400 hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.47% [3]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The latest overseas iron ore shipments have declined significantly. Due to cyclones, Australian shipments have dropped sharply, and Brazilian shipments have slightly decreased. Near - end arrivals have decreased month - on - month. The daily average hot metal production is 228,580 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons, falling short of expectations. Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years [4]. - Outlook: Overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the pressure has been marginally reduced. The structural inventory problem has not been resolved, and the support from steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment has weakened. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate weakly [4]. Steel Rebar - Market Information: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3,064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 15,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305 tons. The position of the main contract was 2,005,500 hands, a month - on - month increase of 90,248 hands. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3,150 yuan/ton and 3,220 yuan/ton respectively, with Tianjin's price decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: Near the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have shown obvious seasonal declines, and inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory accumulation is still within a controllable range [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Information: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton (-0.36%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 243,776 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,197 tons. The position of the main contract was 1,499,800 hands, a month - on - month increase of 15,200 hands. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [5]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly accumulated, with the overall supply - demand structure being neutral [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market Information: On February 9, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) closed down 0.75% at 5,812 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 128 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed down 0.53% at 5,594 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 106 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [9]. - Outlook: The future market trend is mainly affected by the direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push factors on the manganese silicon side and supply - contraction factors on the ferrosilicon side. It is necessary to pay attention to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: On February 9, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) closed up 0.75% at 1,147.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 0.29% at 1,703.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices and basis of various types of coking coal and coke are detailed in the report [11]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: Overseas coal - related disturbances have increased recently, but they have no direct impact on the domestic short - term fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has gradually recovered after New Year's Day, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained at a high level. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke has become relatively loose. Downstream steel mills' replenishment is coming to an end, and the willingness to replenish is low [13][14]. - Outlook: In the short term, the upward catalytic factors for coking coal prices are not strong. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of price corrections after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal is expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) was 8,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% (-50). The weighted contract position increased by 15,807 hands to 406,256 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with bases of 750 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton respectively [17]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: In February, the production of a large industrial silicon plant in the northwest is expected to be halved, and production enterprises in Sichuan will stop production. The demand for polysilicon has declined, and the overall demand for industrial silicon has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in February is weak on both sides, but the supply contraction is more significant [18]. - Outlook: It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to price adjustments caused by market sentiment [19]. Polysilicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2605) was 49,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% (+85). The weighted contract position increased by 11 hands to 66,011 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material are detailed in the report, with a basis of 4,280 yuan/ton [20]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: In February, a leading enterprise will maintain full - scale shutdown, and supply will continue to decrease. Silicon wafer production is expected to remain stable, and high inventory in the silicon material sector is expected to be slightly reduced. The spot price game continues, and the market is mostly waiting and seeing or purchasing low - price goods [21]. - Outlook: The polysilicon futures market is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand feedback and spot prices [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Monday, the main glass contract closed at 1,078 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% (+6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises on February 5 was 53.064 million boxes, a month - on - month increase of 500,000 boxes (+0.95%) [23]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: There are rumors of the shutdown of the Shahe gas line before the Spring Festival, but there is no substantial progress. Downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage, with low inventory and weak purchasing willingness. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are plans for cold repair and transformation of production lines, but there is a lack of demand recovery and policy support [24]. - Outlook: It is expected that the glass market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1,030 - 1,120 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Monday, the main soda ash contract closed at 1,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% (-9). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises on February 5 was 1.5811 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,900 tons (+0.95%) [25]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The demand for heavy soda ash remains weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. The market is in a weak and stable oscillation state, and there is a lack of upward driving force [26]. - Outlook: It is expected that soda ash prices will continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [26].