宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-02-10-20260210

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being bullish. The overall view is that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile and bullish pattern on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Trend and View - Short - term: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1]. - Medium - term: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be bullish, and the overall reference view is a bullish run [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Supply - side factor: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction". Iran, the main source of imports, is in the stage of natural gas supply guarantee and production limitation in winter. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level for the year. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January and February, leading to tight external supply [5]. - Geopolitical factor: Due to the large differences between the US and Iran, the "pizza index" of the US Pentagon has risen again, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the domestic methanol futures showed a volatile and bearish trend on the night session of Monday, the downside space of the futures price is limited [5].