山金期货黑色板块日报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory is increasing rapidly from a low level. The futures price of steel products has broken through the recent trading range and started a downward trend. For iron ore, the demand is weak in the off - season, the supply is expected to decline, and the port inventory has reached a record high, with the futures price under pressure [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand: Last week, the output of threaded steel from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2] - Technical analysis: The futures price has broken through the recent trading range and started a downward trend [2] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [2] - Related data: A series of data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and market transactions of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil are provided, including price changes, production volume changes, inventory changes, etc. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3077 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from last week; the total social inventory of the five major varieties is 940.41 million tons, up 5.58% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - Demand: The market is still in the off - season of consumption. The molten iron output is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased slightly last week. The steel and molten iron output are at a seasonal low, and the room for decline is small. The steel mill replenishment is nearly over, and the market is more concerned about the spring consumption demand [3] - Supply: Global shipments have declined, and due to the seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere, shipments are expected to continue to decline to the annual low. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [3] - Technical analysis: The futures price is under pressure to decline. On the daily K - line, the price has broken through the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and there may be an effective downward breakthrough [3] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Try to short on rallies in the short - term, and be cautious about chasing short positions [3] - Related data: A series of data on prices, basis, spreads, shipments, arrival volume, inventory, etc. of iron ore are provided. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 760.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.92% from last week; the total overseas iron ore shipments are 2535.3 million tons, a decrease of 559.3 million tons from the previous week [3][4][6] 3. Industry News - From February 2nd to February 8th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 253.53 million tons, a decrease of 55.93 million tons from the previous week. The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 194.89 million tons, a decrease of 57.21 million tons from the previous week [6] - From February 2nd to February 8th, 2026, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 245.56 million tons, a decrease of 21.36 million tons from the previous week; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 236.13 million tons, a decrease of 12.34 million tons from the previous week; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 126.40 million tons, a decrease of 2.47 million tons from the previous week [6] - The main iron ore export ports in south - western Australia have gradually resumed operations after the hurricane [6] - Ansteel Bayuquan plans to overhaul a 4000m³ blast furnace on February 25th, with an expected overhaul time of 26 days and an average daily impact on molten iron output of about 0.90 million tons [7] - From January 31st to February 6th, the operating rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% to 68.2% [7]