现实预期不佳，盘?仍有压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market continues to be weak. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage nears its end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment gradually weakens, and the futures market performs weakly. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures price. Overall, as the winter storage of furnace materials nears its end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster. The futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Core Logic: The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the Spring Festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally [2] - Outlook: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke - Core Logic: The growth space of coke supply is limited in the future, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - Outlook: The coke supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - Coking Coal - Core Logic: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] - Outlook: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. The cost of manganese silicon has little adjustment recently, the demand support for the price weakens, and the market inventory level may further increase [15] - Outlook: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the change of manufacturers' production control intensity [15][16] - Silicon Iron - Core Logic: The downstream procurement rhythm slows down, the market trading atmosphere fades, the cost adjustment range of silicon iron is limited, the support of steel - making demand for the price weakens, the market trading activity is low during the holiday, and the daily output of silicon iron remains at a low level [17] - Outlook: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the market trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the resumption of production trends in the main production areas [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Core Logic: The supply is expected to decline in the long - term, the downstream demand is weak, the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral. The overall replenishment ability is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory suppresses the glass valuation in the futures market [13] - Outlook: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - stream and downstream inventories are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [13][15] - Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply increases month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the expected decline in glass daily melting, the downstream procurement of light soda ash has little change, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious change, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation further intensifies. The upstream has no obvious production reduction recently, and the spot price may return to the price - cut channel [13] - Outlook: The cold repair of glass increases, the short - term supply stops production and increases, but the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15] 3.5 Steel - Core Logic: The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill profitability is stable, the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the iron water output increases slightly month - on - month, the electric furnace begins to stop production one after another, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, the demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is emerging, with the social inventory and rebar inventory accumulating significantly [7] - Outlook: The inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end in the off - season is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, the futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [7] 3.6 Iron Ore - Core Logic: The global shipping volume decreases slightly month - on - month due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. The iron water output increases marginally, the rigid demand is still stable, the steel mill replenishment accelerates before the Spring Festival, and the support for the price may gradually weaken as the replenishment progresses. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is still increasing. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the futures market is under pressure [7] - Outlook: The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, the futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro expectations after the Spring Festival. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [7][8] 3.7 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel is expected to decline seasonally, the demand decreases significantly, and the inventory of steel enterprises increases [9] - Outlook: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] 3.8 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [104] - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on February 9, 2026, is 1935.90, with a daily decline of 0.78%, a decline of 1.72% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.10% in the past month, and a decline of 2.03% since the beginning of the year [105]