国新国证期货早报-20260210

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 9, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.41% to 4123.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.17% to 14208.44, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.98% to 3332.77. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures market: - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4719.06, up 75.46 [2]. - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1708.5, down 17.6 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1157.4 yuan, down 7.0 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605: Oscillated higher during the day and night sessions, boosted by the increase in spot prices and capital inflows [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated higher during the day and night sessions, influenced by the positive heavy - truck sales data in January [4]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 0.13% [5]. - Soybean Meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2729 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [5]. - Live Pigs: The main contract LH2605 closed at 11565 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The main contract showed a strong - internal and stable - external pattern, closing at 101840 yuan/ton [5]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 14630 yuan/ton at night, with an increase of 5 lots in inventory [5]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 main contract closed down 0.46% at 761.5 yuan [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 main contract closed down 0.98% at 3334 yuan [6]. - Logs: The 2603 main contract closed at 775, with a daily reduction of 1711 lots [6]. - Steel: rb2605 closed at 3064 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3239 yuan/ton [6]. - Alumina: ao2605 closed at 2868 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2603 closed at 23540 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Core Views - Coke and Coking Coal: After the first round of coke price increase, the production losses of coking enterprises have eased. The supply of coke is marginally looser, and the demand from steel mills has improved, but pre - holiday stocking is nearing completion. For coking coal, the supply from mines and washing plants has decreased, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2605 contract was boosted by the increase in spot prices. It is expected that the EU's beet planting area will decrease in the 2026/27 season, leading to a decline in sugar production [4]. - Rubber: The positive heavy - truck sales data in January supported the rubber price [4]. - Palm oil: The price was in a low - range consolidation [5]. - Soybean Meal: In the international market, the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest and high production expectations put pressure on prices. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening [5]. - Live Pigs: The supply is high in February, and the demand is in a seasonal peak. In the medium - term, the supply will continue to exceed demand [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The price is affected by both positive factors such as mine disturbances and negative factors such as high inventory [5]. - Cotton: Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand before the holiday, and they are cautious about increasing inventory [5]. - Iron Ore: The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is limited. The price is in a volatile trend [6]. - Asphalt: The supply is low, the demand is shrinking, and the price is in a volatile state [6]. - Logs: Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. - Steel: The market is in a wait - and - see state due to weak post - holiday demand expectations and high iron ore inventory [6]. - Alumina: The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but the over - capacity situation remains [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The market sentiment is cooling, the supply is stable, and the demand is weakening [6]. 3. Impact Factors - Coke: The production profit of coking enterprises has improved, the supply has increased, and the pre - holiday stocking of steel mills is almost over [4]. - Coking Coal: The supply from mines and washing plants has decreased, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The increase in spot prices and the expected decrease in EU sugar production [4]. - Rubber: The positive heavy - truck sales data [4]. - Palm oil: No specific impact factors mentioned other than the price trend [5]. - Soybean Meal: Brazilian soybean harvest progress, high domestic supply, and weakening demand [5]. - Live Pigs: High supply in February, seasonal peak demand, and high medium - term supply expectations [5]. - Shanghai Copper: Positive factors include mine disturbances and domestic policy support; negative factors include high inventory and weak international market [5]. - Cotton: Rigid demand procurement by textile enterprises before the holiday and concerns about post - holiday market fluctuations [5]. - Iron Ore: Increasing supply and limited demand growth [6]. - Asphalt: Low supply, shrinking demand [6]. - Logs: Spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. - Steel: Weak post - holiday demand expectations and high iron ore inventory [6]. - Alumina: Improved spot trading atmosphere but over - capacity [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum: Cooling market sentiment, stable supply, and weakening demand [6].