申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by Trump has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, dragging down platinum and palladium prices. However, the long - term bullish logic is not affected by short - term disturbances [4]. - Macroscopically, the judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying spree continues, and the reserve value of platinum and palladium is prominent under de - dollarization. The geopolitical risks in Greenland provide a phased bottom for prices, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged, providing long - term support [4]. - At the industrial level, there is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, with surging hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints providing strong support. Palladium has a rigid supply, and hybrid demand and strict emission policies support demand, resulting in a tight balance in the spot market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Futures Market of Platinum and Palladium - Prices and Changes: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 545.05, 539.90, and 535.15 respectively, with price increases of 52.15, 56.85, and 57.45 and increases of 10.58%, 11.77%, and 12.03% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 438.15, 433.00, and 436.10 respectively, with price increases of 30.90, 28.75, and 38.35 and increases of 7.59%, 7.11%, and 9.64% respectively [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest for platinum and palladium futures is 12078 and 4142 respectively. The trading volumes of pt2606, pt2608, pt2610 are 13074, 229, 143 respectively, and the trading volumes of pd2606, pd2608, pd2610 are 6013, 59, 49 respectively [1]. - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premiums and discounts for platinum futures are - 1.06, 4.09, 8.84 respectively, and for palladium futures are - 18.15, - 13, - 16.1 respectively [1]. Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 543.99 yuan/gram, 2054.00 US dollars/ounce, 836.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The price changes are - 2.48, 30.00, - 58.00, 0.00 respectively, and the price change rates are - 0.005%, 0.015%, - 0.072%, 0.000% respectively [1]. - Palladium Spot: The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 420.00 yuan/gram and 4226.59 rubles/gram respectively. The price changes are 2.00 and 64.66 respectively, and the price change rates are 0.005% and 0.016% respectively [1]. - Price Ratios: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.30, 1.14, - 5.15, - 9.90, 1.08, - 5.15 respectively, and the previous values are - 1.24, - 0.36, - 7.45, - 14.40, 0.34, - 2.05 respectively [1]. Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 646,440.78 ounces, a decrease of 16178.0 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered platinum warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 326,637.95 ounces. The turnover of platinum on the gold exchange is 5,189.29 million yuan, a decrease of 446.1 million yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 96.00 kilograms, a decrease of 12.0 kilograms compared to the previous value [1]. - Palladium Inventory: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 190,873.50 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1]. Related Derivatives and Market Indicators - Market Indicators: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate are 96.85, 6,964.82, 4.22, 23,238.67, 50,135.87, 6.95 respectively. The previous values are 97.61, 6,932.30, 4.22, 23,031.21, 50,115.67, 6.96 respectively. The changes are - 0.76, 32.52, 0.00, 207.46, 20.20, - 0.01 respectively [1]. - Related Derivatives: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1125.94, 1128.78, 1131.24 respectively, with increases of 35.82, 36.06, 35.42 respectively. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 20873.00, 20175.00, 19846.00 respectively, with increases of 2074, 2231, 2236 respectively [1]. Macroeconomic News - Fed Policy: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "designated" director Milan [2]. - Fed Chair Nomination: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - China's Economic Data: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2]. - PBOC Meeting: The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving payment services [3].